Wednesday wagers: Sultry Lass appeals in Churchill feature

The first Wednesday card of the Churchill Downs fall meet features 10 races across a wide variety of ages, classes and surfaces. Let’s take a look at my five favorite heats.

Best bet: Punctuality (race 2)

Best value bet: Sultry Lass (race 9)

Race 1

No. 2 Runningforjoy (5-2) and No. 3 Hero’s Medal (4-5, morning-line favorite) appear head-and-shoulders better than their competition in the opener – slight edge to the former who may improve off his last speed figure going second off the bench. The latter should relish the drop in class to land at least a share. No. 4 Surface to Air (10-1) tries a new low, looking to rebound off a dull try at Keeneland last time out. His previous dirt effort at Ellis was much better.

How I’d bet it (based on a $100 budget): $10 exacta box 2,3

Race 2

No. 1 Punctuality (3-1) looks like he’ll appreciate a turnback to this tricky 7 1/2-furlong trip after fading in his last two route attempts and could end up close to a slow pace from the rail draw. No. 5 Rewire (2-1, morning-line favorite) tries a new low coming off the bench for Joe Sharp, who names Tyler Gaffalione to ride. No. 3 Fire Bryan (4-1) steps up off a decently rated maiden victory at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

How I’d bet it: $15 exacta 1,5, $5 exacta 5,1

Race 5

No. 5 Going the Distance (7-2) was a game third in his initial turf try here, logical threat if he can repeat that on Wednesday. No. 9 Theroanrunner (5-2, morning-line favorite) could see an improvement in his closing kick on the turnback – forgive his last at Kentucky Downs, which some horses simply can’t get over. No. 8 Kick a Rhyme (4-1) lures Gaffalione on the cutback for Mike Maker (20 percent) – note the impressive recent morning drills.

How I’d bet it: $2 exacta box 5,8,9, $4 exacta box 5,9

Race 8

No. 7 Watch This Birdie (4-1) won her lone Churchill grass start two back before placing third in a tough spot at Keeneland. Speed figures make her a major player here. No. 2 Strikingly Spun (3-1) gets back to a more customary distance vs. foes she can beat, much as she did over this course back in May – consider. No. 4 Nom de Plume (10-1) is 1-for-1 on the lawn and won that race off a layoff.

How I’d bet it: $10 exacta box 2/7

Race 9

No. 7 Sultry Lass (5-1) drew off impressively at first asking at Fair Grounds in February before going on an extended vacation. The layoff is not ideal, but if she can build on that first-out effort under Gaffalione, she’s an upset candidate vs. these. No. 1 Amber Cascade (4-1) has been in the exacta in three of her four career route tries, with the exception coming vs. much tougher in the Silverbulletday Stakes. No. 4 Huntress for Hire (3-1, morning-line favorite) is tough to get a read on as she’s employed different tactics in her brief career. The stretchout is a question mark for this race favorite, but she’s quick enough on paper to get at least a piece.

How I’d bet it: $16 win 7, $2 exacta box 1,7

Robert Criscola is a free-lance handicapper based in New York.