Wednesday wagers: Stars should align for Sagittarius at Churchill

The young fall meet at Churchill Downs continues with a nine-race Wednesday program, and I have picks for five of the day’s races below.

Best bet: Safe Trip Home (race 8)

Best value bet: Sagittarius (race 5)

Race 1

No. 3 Intermittent Fast, 2-1, morning-line favorite, has sandwiched a dismal effort in the Ellis Park Debutante with two runaway victories vs. lesser foes. This looks like a cozy spot for the speedy daughter of Tapwrit to pad her résumé. No. 2 Almond Fudge, 3-1, has one gate-to-wire maiden triumph bracketed by two awful off-the-pace tries. The switch to Luis Saez would seem to indicate a desire for aggressive tactics in this one. No. 4 Ready for Trouble, 9-2, did a nice job to pick up the pieces and earn her diploma at Keeneland last month. She could land a nice slice of the purse in her first try vs. winners today with a repeat performance.

How I’d bet it (based on a $100 budget): $10 exacta 3-2, $5 exacta 3-4, $5 exacta 2-3

Race 4

No. 8 Salsalita Verde, 7-2, was a game second in each of her two career starts vs. maiden claimers and goes second off the claim while dropping out of a maiden special weight for Tom Amoss, who is 18 percent and 28 percent going second off the claim and off a class drop, respectively. Note the solid recent works on the tab. No. 4 Tribest, 5-2, morning-line favorite, posted her first career exacta finish in her initial try on dirt vs. maiden claimers, so improvement is not out of the question. No. 1 Imperator Furiosa, 9-2, also was a runner-up when last seen, and the daughter of Super Saver is eligible to get faster in her third career start while stretching out.

How I’d bet it: $10 exacta 8-4, $5 exacta 8-1, $5 exacta 4-8

Race 5

No. 3 Sagittarius (5-1) demonstrated plenty of stamina en route to a third-place finish going nine furlongs on turf at first asking. The $120k son of Empire Maker should take a big step forward considering trainer Brendan Walsh fires at 24 percent with second-out turf runners. No. 6 Utah Beach, 5-2, ran into a pair of buzzsaws over the summer and had to settle for second in each instance. Trainer Ignacio Corrales IV hopes the removal of blinkers does the trick for the first-time gelding. No. 11 Conversing, 2-1, morning-line favorite, is logical off his narrow miss in an identical spot at Keeneland last month with a year of rust to shake off, but this post will do him no favors. No. 2 Orbi One (15-1) will take them as far as he can with blinkers on, and with four in-the-money finishes in five turf tries prior to a last-out blinkers-off debacle, he’s worth using underneath at a nice price.

How I’d bet it: $2 exacta box 3-6-11, $2 exacta 3-6,11, $2 exacta 3-2, $1 exacta 6,11-2

Race 6

This sprint looks like it goes through a pair of comebacking runners in No. 1 Royal Spa, 4-1, and No. 2 Effortlesslyelgant, 9-5, morning-line favorite. I’ll give a slight edge to the former, who’s undefeated around one turn. She’s also won her only prior start over this course. The latter’s lone sprint win to date came on a wet track, and she was fourth in her only career start at Churchill, albeit with a tough trip. No. 4 Miss Arlington (3-1) has hit the board in each of her last four starts vs. similar foes.

How I’d bet it: $8 exacta box 1-2, $2 exacta 1,2-4

Race 8

No. 4 Safe Trip Home, 3-1, morning-line favorite, was beaten only a neck by No. 6 Gatlinburg, 7-2, despite a lengthy vacation, and comes into this one as a first-time gelding. The son of More Than Ready looks poised to turn the tables. Gatlinburg could have things all his own way up front, but this course has not been kind to speed so far this meet. No. 2 Sbagliato, 4-1, won at first asking before losing to Webslinger in February and hitting the shelf. He leaves the Christophe Clement barn but Jonathan Thomas now conditions – respect with Florent Geroux get a leg-up. No. 8 Cairo's Ghost, 10-1, is worth throwing in off a fast-closing maiden score at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

How I’d bet it: $6 exacta 4-2,6,8, $2 exacta 6-4

Robert Criscola is a free-lance handicapper based in New York.