Wednesday wagers: Speight’spercomete starts new season in style
A storm is expected to blow through Florida on Tuesday, though Gulfstream Park is slated to get much less rainfall than Tampa Bay Downs. As it stands, the majority of Gulfstream’s races this Wednesday are scheduled for the all-weather surface, and I have picks for five of the day’s nine events.
Best bet: Speight’spercomete (race 5)
Best value bet: Always Dialed (race 4)
Race 1
No. 2 My Royal Vow (5-2, morning-line favorite) drops in class and cuts back as she goes from turf to synthetic for red-hot trainer Christophe Clement (32 percent) – squarely the one to beat. No. 7 True Martini (3-1) was a strong second under similar circumstances when last seen – can score if the top one falters. No. 8 Breaking Bullet (6-1) is 0-for-20 lifetime but could hit the ticket on the cutback.
How I’d bet it (based on a $100 budget): $10 exacta 2/7, $4 exacta 2/8, $4 exacta 7/2, $2 exacta 7/8
Race 3
No. 6 Thethrillofvictory (2-1, morning-line favorite) crushed a similar group when last seen and goes first off the claim for Kelly Breen (19 percent), who’s off to a fast start at the meet (33 percent). Paco Lopez (27 percent) hops aboard, and this jockey-trainer combo has won six of its last 16 starts (38 percent). No. 5 Spettro (8-1) wired N2L company on turf two back before faltering and hitting the shelf. This is a fairly soft spot for his all-weather debut, and Luis Saez (18 percent) fits this speedster like a glove. No. 4 Hollywoodhellraisr (7-2) won easily vs. a comparable group at last asking, but that was back in June.
How I’d bet it: $9 exacta 6/4-5, $2 win 5
Race 4
No. 5 Always Dialed (12-1) merits a look at long odds as he drops in class and adds Lasix. The strong turf works indicate that he could take to the synthetic track. No. 6 Sugar It’s Eli (7-2) was a decent third in each of his prior all-weather tries at Woodbine, adds Lasix and gets Emisael Jaramillo (14 percent) aboard. No. 7 El Matador (5-2, morning-line favorite) tries a new low and gets Lasix for Riley Mott (26 percent), but the surface switch is a question mark.
How I’d bet it: $6 win 5, $2 exacta box 5/6/7, $1 exacta 6/5-7
Race 5
No. 4 Speight’spercomete (2-1, morning-line favorite) was Lopez’s choice off an easy victory despite a less-than-ideal trip. Trainer Jose D’Angelo is firing at 24 percent with runners going first off the claim. No. 3 Wind Ninety Nine (7-2) was a well-rated winner vs. similar two-back – logical if you forgive his last-out try vs. tougher. No. 5 C My Meister (6-1) should also be more effective while dropping down the class ladder.
How I’d bet it: $10 exacta 4/3-5
Race 9
No. 6 Splurge (2-1, morning-line favorite) gets the slightest of nods in the nightcap while getting class relief and luring Irad Ortiz Jr. (24 percent). No. 2 Chloe’s Toy (5-2) was a runner-up vs. similar when last seen – could get there if all goes well. No. 7 One Smokin’ Rita (5-1) has the speed figures to compete with these despite stepping up from the maiden ranks.
How I’d bet it: $10 exacta box 2/6
Robert Criscola is a free-lance handicapper based in New York.