Wednesday wagers: Really Good lives up to name at Ky. Downs

The lucrative Kentucky Downs meet comes to a close Wednesday with a 12-race card, which is anchored by a trio of stakes races. Here are my five favorite events on the program, accompanied by my wagering advice.

Best bet: Really Good (Race 9)

Best value bet: Accredit (Race 5)

Race 1

No. 2 Joyful Applause (5-1) is the one to beat on speed figures and lures Julien Leparoux. The versatile daughter of Kitten’s Joy appears the most likely runner to earn the diploma in this one. No. 5 Shady Road (3-1, morning-line favorite) showed improved tactical speed last time out, though steadying into the first turn didn’t help. She’s working forwardly for this, so third time could be the charm. No. 4 What’s to Do (12-1) tired going longer at Ellis last time out, but her one-mile effort at Churchill from earlier this year was solid. No. 6 Irish Kitten (30-1) has run unspectacularly in three lifetime starts at Belterra, but all were on dirt. She’s bred through-and-through for turf, so she could spice up the exotics switching surfaces.

How I’d bet it (based on a $100 budget): $2 exacta box 2/4/5, $2 exacta box 2/5, $1 exacta 2,5/6, $2 win 4

Race 2

No. 2 Decanted (2-1, morning-line favorite) was nosed out of a victory on debut over this course just two weeks ago and has strong chance to atone as Irad Ortiz Jr. climbs aboard for Mike Maker, who’s won with 11 of his first 49 starters at the meet. No. 13 Running Late (15-1) could outrun his odds in his career unveiling for Tom Amoss, who wins with 19 percent of his firsters. The son of Runhappy shows a swift turf drill ahead of this outing. No. 6 Oscar Award (6-1) flew from 12th to be third on debut at Ellis Park. Don’t overlook the $120,000 son of Oscar Performance, as the return works have been robust.

How I’d bet it: $2 exacta box 2/6/13, $2 exacta box 2/13, $4 win 13

Race 5

No. 6 Accredit (8-1) might not go off at these odds, as race favorite Field Pass is likely to scratch after running fourth in the Mint Million on Saturday, but his being listed as co-fourth choice on the morning-line seems absurd. Accredit finished with interest to be third despite a wide trip here on Sept. 1 following a layoff of almost an entire year. Last year’s Dueling Grounds Derby winner should command more respect. No. 8 Duke of Hazzard (10-1) and No. 10 Count of Amazonia (12-1) look like the two most likely runners to complete the trifecta. The former has lost 16 in a row but was a solid third in the Lure Stakes at Saratoga when last seen. The latter picked up his first career turf victory in his 16th start at Del Mar in a high-level claiming event, but lures Paco Lopez and boasts strong speed figures.

How I’d bet it: $20 win 6

Race 9

No. 2 Really Good (5-2, morning-line favorite) would be a bargain at this price in the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile if he runs back to or improves upon his debut at Saratoga. Tyler Gaffalione is winning at 21 percent at the meet when teaming up with Maker. No. 5 Castleknock (9-2) took to the turf with aplomb in his third career start. The waters get deeper here, but the rider switch to Gerardo Corrales (22: 6-2-1 at this circuit through Sunday) suggests he’s live. No. 8 Reckoning Force (5-1) was no match for the top choice on July 23 but backed up the speed figure he earned in that fourth-place finish at the Spa on Aug. 13 with a third-place effort. Joel Rosario takes over the assignment for Joseph O’Brien.

How I’d bet it: $12 exacta 2/5, $8 exacta 2/8

Race 11

No. 3 Rocking Redhead (9-2) was fifth with a rough trip when last seen in the Yellow Ribbon (G2) at Del Mar. But she was a strong wire-to-wire allowance winner at Santa Anita and a respectable third in the Osunitas Stakes in two prior tries. Joe Bravo ships in for the call in the One Dreamer Stakes. No. 2 Burning Ambition (6-1) hasn’t raced since settling for third in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) last October at Keeneland. This is a much easier spot for the daughter of Uncle Mo that boasts a 6: 4-1-1 record for Brad Cox. No. 6 Curly Ruth (12-1) has a victory in her only career start at Kentucky Downs, and though subsequent stakes tries were uninspiring, she does has two allowance wins at Keeneland since then. This “horse-for-course” could get ignored in the wagering.

How I’d bet it: $3 exacta box 2/3/6, $1 exacta box 2/3

Robert Criscola is a free-lance writer based in New York.