Wednesday wagers: Overtaxed can take the money at Churchill
The first Wednesday card of the brief Churchill Downs September meet is set for 12:45 p.m. EDT. We have nine races to consider, all on dirt. Here are my five preferred heats on the program.
Best bet: Pretti Xtreme (race 5)
Best value bet: Overtaxed (race 8)
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No. 4 Violent Gigi (2-1, morning-line favorite) was highly effective against claiming company earlier this year at Oaklawn before finding allowance competition too tough in her last four starts. This is a steep drop, but it’s not really a suspicious one – the pick. No. 5 Heavenly Trip (5-2) routed cheaper foes at Belterra in two straight – a threat to make it three in a row. No. 7 Beverly’s Charge (4-1) gets in light as a 3-year-old filly facing mostly older males. She was a back-to-back runner-up over this course before flopping at Ellis against pricier last time out.
How I’d bet it (based on a $100 budget): $7 exacta box 4/5, $3 exacta 4,5/7
Race 2
No. 9 Moncrief (10-1) shows encouraging works ahead of his debut for Ron Moquett, including a bullet 1-of-117 move going four furlongs on Sept. 10. The $42,000 son of Goldencents should have a say in the lane at the least. No. 10 Cortese (5-2, morning-line favorite) merits respect as one of the few runners in here with experience. He’s hit the board in two straight and goes first off the claim for Mike Maker (15 percent). No. 3 Must Be the Money (8-1) sold for $50,000 (just fitting into these race conditions) and boasts a strong work tab, but trainer Paul McGee has lost 27 in a row with first-time starters – best used underneath.
How I’d bet it: $5 exacta box 9/10, $4 exacta 10/3, $2 exacta 9/3, $4 win 9
Race 5
No. 3 Pretti Xtreme (5-1) hit the board three straight times against slightly tougher foes at Horseshoe Indy over the summer. She gets a five-pound weight break with apprentice Rene Diaz and takes a slight drop in class – speed figures suggest 5-1 is value. No. 2 Family Time (3-1, morning-line favorite) takes a needed drop in class – her last try against claiming company resulted in a romp over this course. No. 1 Big Bad Diva (7-2) routed optional claiming foes at Monmouth when last seen, running her record to 6: 4-1-1 all-time on dirt. She looks like a must-use getting Tyler Gaffalione aboard.
How I’d bet it: $2 exacta box 1/2/3, $8 win 3
Race 8
No. 1 Overtaxed (15-1) will be the top selection in a race that looks ripe for an upset. He’s faded in each of his lifetime starts in which he was sent hard to the lead, including last time out in the Maxfield Stakes. But Overtaxed exits a freshening (Moquett wins at 14 percent with 60-90 day layoffs) and gets Rafael Bejarano – who guided him to a fast-closing victory two starts ago – back in the saddle. Despite the rail draw, Overtaxed could win this one at a big price from off the pace. No. 6 Burninhunkoflove (10-1) helped force that quick tempo in the Maxfield and also faded when last seen. The cutback to six furlongs should help immensely. No. 8 Hoist the Gold (2-1, morning-line favorite) lures Gaffalione off a solid runner-up result at Saratoga last time out, but it’s worth noting he’s crossed the wire first only one time in 12 career starts.
How I’d bet it: $2 exacta box 1/6/8, $4 win 1,6
Race 9
No. 6 T Money (3-1) tries a new low and gets a significant weight break with 10-pound apprentice Jonuelle Pena in the irons. The speed figures say he’s got a good chance to earn his diploma here. No. 9 Offutt Cole (5-2, morning-line favorite) checked in behind the top choice over this course two-back but exits a highly rated runner-up placing at Saratoga against pricier – a logical alternative. No. 12 Rikio (6-1) could be stalking a hot pace (another reason to prefer confirmed closer T Money on top) but makes plenty of sense underneath on speed figures.
How I’d bet it: $10 exacta box 6/9
Robert Criscola is a free-lance handicapper based in New York.