Wednesday wagers: Opening Buzz should zip at Keeneland
Wednesday's card at Keeneland has no stakes races, but eight solid wagering events are on the program. Here are my five favorite heats.
Best bet: Opening Buzz (race 8)
Best value pet: Oro de Moro Moro (race 4)
Race 1
No. 10 Order of Merit (5-2, morning-line favorite) takes an aggressive drop in class for Todd Pletcher and turns back from a demanding 1 1/4-mile race when last seen – looks imposing. No. 6 Angel of the North (10-1) stands to improve in his second lifetime start after splitting the field on debut. Pedigree suggests the stretchout will help too. No. 4 Heir to Greatness (7-2) ran a speed figure that would put him in the hunt here in his lone dirt effort against tougher.
How I’d bet it (based on a $100 budget): $10 exacta 10/4,6
Race 2
No. 1 Tyrona (3-1, morning-line favorite) drops in for a tag for the first time and gets a helpful cutback in distance. Trainer Gustavo Delgado also adds blinkers here, a 23 percent move for him. No. 5 Somebody Loves Me (7-2) tries a new low for the struggling Brendan Walsh barn (15: 0-3-1 at Keeneland) and has two in-the-money finishes in four dirt starts to boast. No. 9 Pout (9-2) might have needed her last at Saratoga off a long layoff. She also drops in class while getting Lasix, but trainer Nick Zito is as cold as they come, having gone 0-for-66 in 2022.
How I’d bet it: $10 exacta 1/5,9
Race 4
No. 4 Oro de Moro Moro (12-1) found $50,000 claimers too tough when last seen and might not have cared for the seven panels. Dropping down and scaling back could be just what the doctor ordered, and a bullet breeze ahead of this only adds to the confidence in this one at a price. No. 9 Zap Motion (5-2, morning-line favorite) was in over his head here 11 days ago. His consecutive runner-up efforts prior to that make him a deserving favorite, though far from a lock. No. 6 Midaswellrun (3-1) downgrades from the Rudy Rodriguez (18 percent) to the Bentley Combs (6 percent) barn, but his second-place effort at Saratoga last time out stamps him as a contender.
How I’d bet it: $3 exacta box 4/6/9, $4 win 4
Race 5
No. 4 Only Kidding (9-2) is a major threat at a solid price if she runs back to her second-place finish over this track from the spring. Her last try over Churchill’s troubled turf course in May can be forgiven. No. 8 American Starlet (2-1, morning-line favorite) faded going longer at Kentucky Downs when last seen, but this 5 1/2-furlong dash is right in her wheelhouse. No. 3 Laugh and Play (6-1) has won three in a row, including two turf sprints, but this is yet another step up the class ladder.
How I’d bet it: $3 exacta key box 4/3,8, $1 exacta box 3/4/8
Race 8
No. 9 Opening Buzz (5-2, morning-line favorite) beat an easier field of state-breds at Del Mar when last seen, but the speed figure she earned in that heat stamps her a logical choice in the Keeneland nightcap. No. 11 Top Gun Girl (4-1) broke her maiden at this course and distance almost a year ago to the day – has the speed to clear from this post. No. 1 Shannon (3-1) hasn’t missed the exacta in three career turf tries – difficult to dismiss.
How I’d bet it: $10 exacta 9/1,11
Robert Criscola is a free-lance handicapper based in New York.