Wednesday wagers: Odds On is solid value play at Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay Downs has an intriguing nine-race program Wednesday afternoon. Here are my picks for five races on the card.
Best bet: Frolic Man (race 8)
Best value bet: Odds On (race 2)
Race 1
No. 5 Ready to Film (3-1) beat No. 4 Csilla (9-2) in gate-to-wire fashion going seven panels two weeks ago, and cuts back Wednesday while going first off the claim by Craig Smith (28 percent). She’s a major threat to pick up her third win of the meet. No. 2 Sassy Charlee (5-2, morning-line favorite) is the main danger to the top choice if she can replicate her dominant last-out performance against conditional claimers, but that’s a tall order based on back class. Csilla can usually be relied on to pick up a share, but the distance reduction may not work in her favor.
How I’d bet it (based on a $100 budget): $8 exacta 5/2, $5 exacta 5/4, $5 exacta 2/5, $2 exacta 2/4
Race 2
No. 6 Odds On (9-2) has won each of his last two races in which he was allowed a clean start, and this seven-furlong trip might be in his wheelhouse – strong upset possibility. No. 2 Almashriq (2-1, morning-line favorite) is a capable but nonetheless vulnerable favorite with three runner-up results in his last four efforts. The 3-for-21 lifetime record doesn’t inspire either. No. 7 That’s My Boi Toy (5-1) was closer to the pace than usual last time out and it paid off with a victory. Look for Jose Batista (17 percent) to try and work out a similar trip from this post.
How I’d bet it: $10 win 6, $5 exacta box 2/6
Race 3
No. 1 Mylastredcent (12-1) has shown steady improvement over her brief three-start career, breaking through for her maiden victory earlier this month. The daughter of Red Rocks might not have hit her ceiling yet. No. 2 Freedom Rose (5-1) gets needed class relief and retains Samy Camacho (25 percent), expect a much stronger kick from her in the lane vs. these. No. 3 I’m Nervous Now (3-1, morning-line favorite) has endured wide-trip thirds in her last two efforts, could break through dropping in from starter allowance heats.
How I’d bet it: $3 exacta box 1/2/3, $2 win 1
Race 7
No. 3 Finlandias Neat (4-1) showed improved speed in his only his second lifetime start and lures Camacho for his return – would not be a shock. No. 8 Street Glide (5-2, morning-line favorite) has hit the board in three straight at this level and switches to Daniel Centeno (16 percent), logical alternative. No. 9 Lord of the Nile (7-2) is tough to trust on top at 0-for-17 lifetime, but he’s been knocking on the door at the meet with three straight in-the-money results.
How I’d bet it: $7 exacta box 3/8, $3 exacta 3,8/9
Race 8
No. 3 Frolic Man (7-2, morning-line favorite) gets class relief and ships in from Gulfstream while luring Jose Ferrer (17 percent) – should boss these if he runs back to his Feb. 23 effort. No. 6 Great Blake (9-2) has solid back class on dirt and stayed in decent form over the synthetic at Presque Isle last summer. The layoff won’t help, however. No. 11 Preferred Outcome (12-1) is capable of picking up a share on his best, but the nine-year-old gelding is far from the most consistent runner you’ll see. The morning-line odds make up for it, though.
How I’d bet it: $20 win 3
Robert Criscola is a free-lance handicapper based in New York.