Wednesday wagers: Noble Eagle takes flight at Fair Grounds

A sensational five-day racing week at Fair Grounds, anchored by the Grade 2, $1 million Louisiana Derby on Saturday, begins with an eight-race program on Wednesday. I have picks for my five favorite events on Wednesday’s card below.

Best bet: Imaboutago, race 5

Best value bet: Noble Eagle, race 7

Race 1

No. 6 Lawless Times (8-5, morning-line favorite) was beaten by only 1 1/2-lengths for all the marbles vs. much tougher two starts ago. Trainer Bret Calhoun fires at 27 percent with a positive return on investment with runners trying the maiden-claiming ranks for the first time, and this one stands out on speed figures. No. 1 Rusty’s Sunrise (9-2) needs to improve figure-wise but is eligible to do so in her second lifetime start. The extra furlong she gets here could aid her chances as she tries to avoid settling for second for the second straight time. No. 7 Clearly Creeps (7-2) moved up when trying a route for the first time when last seen, and getting a fast track to work with could be to her benefit as well.

How I’d bet it (based on a $100 budget): $10 exacta 6/1,7

Race 2

No. 4 Moion (5-2, morning-line favorite) made an impact en route to a runner-up finish in her first try for a tag. That speed figure would represent more than enough to beat these, and blinkers on could help her seal the deal. No. 1 Mallory’s Ocean (12-1) was off slow but made up all kinds of ground going shorter at first asking while racing in the mud – logical underneath. No. 8 Radiant Rebel (7-2) loses Jareth Loveberry (14 percent) to the top choice but was a decent second vs. cheaper last time out and could benefit from moving to an outside post based on her stalking tendencies.

How I’d bet it: $10 exacta 4/1,8

Race 5

No. 9 Imaboutago (4-1) has trained forwardly for her first start since a dazzling December debut win going gate-to-wire at Gulfstream. Trainer Wesley Ward usually picks his spots well and fires at 25 percent when adding Lasix. No. 6 Tipsy Runner (7-2, morning-line favorite) was a fast-closing second despite a wide voyage in her first try vs. winners – must respect. No. 3 Reagan’s Flame (4-1) gets back to sprinting, where she picked up her only lifetime win – could be sitting on a career-best. No. 7 Copper Em (9-2) was outkicked by Tipsy Runner last time out but the Steve Asmussen (18 percent) pupil gets an attention-grabbing upgrade in the saddle to Florent Geroux (26 percent).

How I’d bet it: $4 trifecta 9/3,6,7/3,6,7

Race 6

No. 2 Cash Fever (5-2, morning-line favorite) is the one to beat on speed figures and is trying a new low – a must-use in all wagers. No. 10 Big Fig (8-1) took to fast dirt with aplomb when last seen. This is certainly a tougher spot for the new gelding, but the price is right. No. 9 Quarrymen (9-2) sheds weight and drops in class with the potent combination of Geroux and Brad Cox (27 percent) in his corner.

How I’d bet it: $2 exacta box 2/9/10, $2 exacta 2/9,10, $3 win 10

Race 7

No. 2 Noble Eagle (8-1) came away slowly and went eight wide yet still had a full head of steam late in his career unveiling. It makes all the sense in the world to give this More Than Ready colt more distance to work with, and I expect him to outrun his odds in his second lifetime effort. No. 1 Night Out (7-2, morning-line favorite) was a well-rated third in his initial turf try – the one to beat on paper while adding blinkers. No. 6 King Mendelssohn (9-2) shows a promising recent work and has been involved late in two similar races at the meet – best of the rest.

How I’d bet it: $5 win 2, $4 exacta box 1/2, $2 exacta 1,2/6

Robert Criscola is a free-lance handicapper based in New York.