Wednesday wagers: Picks and analysis for Colonial Downs

Turf races could be at a premium for horseplayers on Wednesday based on the forecasts, but the weather should hold up at Colonial Downs. The month of August wraps up at the Virginia track with a nine-race program, eight of which will be contested on grass. Let’s dive into my five favorite heats on the card. 

Best bet: Mrs Shaw (Race 5)

Best value bet: Simonela (Race 2)

Race 2

No. 5 Simonela (15-1) gets the nod in a race that looks ripe for an upset. She was outsprinted in her most recent try over this course, but showed good interest against tougher going a route of ground two-back. Simonela’s out-of-town form gives her a fair chance at long odds and she lures Samy Camacho. No. 4 Dreaminofdasies (10-1) outran her odds against tougher at Parx in two straight, consider. No. 1 Sunnymede Dream (9-5, morning-line favorite) sports a 12: 2-4-4 record at this distance on turf and should be involved late.

How I’d bet it (based on $100 budget): $2 exacta box 1/4/5, $4 win/place 5 

Race 4

No. 1 Rock With You (7-2) was a runner-up on debut at 66-1 and is eligible to improve and graduate at second asking. No. 7 Catchthiswinner (5-2, morning-line favorite) was outfinished by the top choice when last seen. He has speed to spare and solid figures, but could have competition up front. No. 2 Peruvian Lucky (4-1) hit the board in each of his first two starts on synthetic dirt and is training forwardly for his return to the races following a March layoff. The Ignacio Corrales/Vincent Cheminaud connection is solid but has flown under the radar. 

How I’d bet it: $7 exacta box 1/7, $3 exacta 1,7/2 

Race 5

No. 14 Mrs Shaw (7-2, morning-line favorite) steps up from the maiden ranks and was slammed with the far outside draw, but it shouldn’t matter. A repeat effort of her most recent score would be more than enough for the victory. No. 10 Awesome Lawson (6-1) gets a helpful rider switch to Horacio Karamanos off back-to-back in-the-money finishes against slightly tougher, logical. No. 8 Tea In China (4-1) nearly beat similar from off the pace when last seen, consider.

How I’d bet it: $10 exacta 14/8,10 

Race 7 

No. 1 Tijuana Brass (8-1) gets a tepid nod over No. 7 Noicattaro (5-1) in this heat. The son of Kitten’s Joy was a solid third against similar last time out and makes his third start off the bench. He’s never missed hitting the board in three starts at Colonial. Noicattaro rallied to beat slightly lesser company when last seen and retains Leonel Reyes. He is difficult to ignore. No. 12 Glorious Weekend (7-2, morning-line favorite) just earned his second career win in try No. 43. He's moving up the class ladder, and could be a short price to boot. But the speed figures say he’s just as live as anyone in this field. 

How I’d bet it: $2 exacta box 1/7/12, $4 exacta box 1/7 

Race 9

No. 5 A Lot Like Xmas (7-2, morning-line favorite) crossed the wire first in his initial try at this level but was DQ’d. It is hard not to like his chances to atone in this spot. No. 11 My Favorite Uncle (8-1) tries a new low after holding his own against more difficult competition at Indiana Grand. No. 7 Bustin Up (5-1) is another class dropper, this time coming in from the demanding NYRA circuit. Trainer Robert Falcone Jr. (3: 2-1-0) has chosen his spots carefully at Colonial this summer and adds Lasix. No. 2 Polsar (4-1) also drops in class and owns a 7-0-1-5 record on the lawn.

How I’d bet it: $5 exacta 5/2,7,11, $5 win 11