Wednesday wagers: Managing Mischief gets a class drop

Another gorgeous afternoon is in store at Tampa Bay Downs this Wednesday as they put a bow on the month of February, and I have picks for five of the nine races on the program.

Best bet: Managing Mischief (race 6)

Best value bet: Deep Strike (race 5)

Race 1

No. 3 Jassai (7-5, morning-line favorite) rallied wide into a slow pace when last seen and nearly got the job done vs. similar. The 0-for-9 maiden deserves a chance to atone vs. a lackluster group. No. 5 Cajun Gal (9-2) was beaten easily by the top pick when last seen but is lightly raced and doesn’t have to beat much for place. No. 7 Red Haired Gal (4-1) lures Samy Camacho (23 percent) for her second career effort despite showing little on debut.

How I’d bet it (based on a $100 budget): $12 exacta 3/5, $8 exacta 3/7

Race 4

No. 4 Mitole’s Wish (2-1, morning-line favorite) was fleet of early foot at first asking before fading to last vs. maiden special weight foes. This is a much easier assignment for the Juan Arrigada (26 percent) trainee, and the fast track on tap (vs. good/sealed conditions last time out) could move him up. No. 11 Ticket to the Top (5-2) tries a new low after fading badly in his first effort for a tag on dirt – logical alternative on speed figures. No. 8 Awesome Fantasy (6-1) is by a Yes It’s True mare who has produced four winners from four starters, and sire Bucchero wins with 14 percent of firsters. The works for Michael Dini (10 percent with firsters) suggest Awesome Fantasy can land a share.

How I’d bet it: $12 exacta 4/11, $8 exacta 4/8

Race 5

No. 2 Deep Strike (7-2) was a game second off a layoff in his first try at this level before setting a much-too-ambitious pace when last seen. Trust in Camacho to work out a better trip today and get this one home at a fair price. No. 7 Lord Knows (3-1) ran his best race to date in his first start with Lasix, and the prep work for this was solid. No. 8 Ehsaan (6-1) closed into a tepid pace to earn his maiden diploma in his most recent effort – consider. No. 9 Crowned Jewel (5-2, morning-line favorite) adds Lasix and drops in class – far from impossible, just not inspiring enough at these odds to take on top.

How I’d bet it: $8 exacta 2/7, $6 exacta 2/8,9

Race 6

No. 1 Managing Mischief (8-5, morning-line favorite) was not disgraced in the Suncoast Stakes in her first route try, and the drop down the class ladder coupled with a cutback to a sprint makes her quite imposing vs. this group. No. 6 Corinth is 1-for-10 lifetime but has hit the triple in each of her last two dirt starts, including the Gasparilla Stakes when last seen. No. 5 Maiden Lane (8-1) has worked well on dirt for her initial try on the surface, and Pablo Morales (14 percent) sees fit to climb aboard again after riding this one to her maiden win at Presque Isle Downs last summer.

How I’d bet it: $10 exacta 1/5,6

Race 9

No. 4 Q F Seventy Five (7-5, morning-line favorite) took his lumps while racing vs. much tougher on turf last year but sprinkled in some encouraging results that would make him a standout in this spot. Daniel Centeno (16 percent) takes the call for Arnaud Delacour, who wins at an astounding 44 percent clip with first-time claiming runners. No. 7 Zatip (5-2) cuts back slightly and drops precipitously in class for Graham Motion (18 percent with first-time claimers) but is one race removed from a bang-up fourth vs. classier. No. 8 Hank Ollie (12-1) is eligible to hit the ticket if he can replicate his last effort vs. similar foes from Dec. 24 – note the weight break with Gabriel Maldonado (16 percent).

How I’d bet it: $12 exacta 4/7, $4 exacta 7/4, $2 exacta 4,7/8

Robert Criscola is a free-lance handicapper based in New York.