Wednesday Wagers: Man With the Moves can surprise at Keeneland

The curtain comes down on what’s been an enthralling Keeneland spring meet with an abbreviated three-day racing week that begins on Wednesday. Eight races are on tap, and I’ve got picks for five of those heats below.

Best bet: John the Beer Man (race 8)

Best value bet: Man With the Moves (race 5)

Race 1

No. 3 Ellie’s Boyfriend (3-1) wired a group of maiden claimers in his last fast dirt try. Since then he’s routed in the slop and sprinted on synthetic vs. much tougher than he’ll meet here. If you can forgive those two efforts, this one appeals. No. 2 Shogun Be Fast (8-5, morning-line favorite) was elevated to first in his unveiling, hit the sidelines for five months and has done little running since. But the class drop should help immensely as trainer Steve Asmussen (15: 1-0-2 at the meet) looks to salvage some pride at Keeneland this spring. No. 1 Hijack the Party (4-1) ran a hole in the wind at Turfway to earn the diploma when last seen and has a decent effort over this course to run back to.

How I’d bet it (based on a $100 budget): $10 exacta 3/1,2

Race 4

No. 8 Coinvest (3-1) and No. 7 Unit Economics (9-5, morning-line favorite) profile similarly heading into this grass clash, but the former gets the call at better odds. The Todd Pletcher (13 percent) trainee keeps Irad Ortiz Jr. while adding blinkers, and this one-mile trip might just hit him between the eyes. Unit Economics might want a touch more ground, but getting away from the gate cleanly for a change could negate that lack of distance today. No. 12 Mohtafil (8-1) intrigues going from synthetic to turf while adding 1 1/2 furlongs.

How I’d bet it: $10 exacta box 7/8

Race 5

No. 1 Man With the Moves (12-1) gets the nod in a race that looks ripe for an upset. He tries a new low and should get a fast strip to work with for the first time. A repeat of his two-back effort at Turfway would be good enough to take this. No. 5 Hero Worship (8-5, morning-line favorite) has been a mixed bag in his four-start career but clearly has the talent to take this, and you bet against Brad Cox (36 percent) at your own peril. No. 6 Grand Rapids (7-2) has flashed talent in the mornings yet debuts in this modest spot. Trainer Rodolphe Brisset wins at only 10 percent with runners racing for a tag at first asking.

How I’d bet it: $10 win/place 1

Race 7

This race marks the return of No. 3 Howl (9-5, morning-line favorite), but No. 8 Amaretti (4-1) should not be easily dismissed from the win discussion. The Bill Mott (25 percent at the meet) trainee sandwiched a sloppy-track misfire with two runaway victories, the latter coming off a significant layoff. Jose Ortiz (24 percent) picks up the assignment. Howl is training like she can bounce back immediately after a dismal effort in the Grade 1 La Brea. She was an impressive winner at Keeneland at first asking for Cox. No. 2 Accede (7-2) was aggressively campaigned last summer but a drop-down in class did the trick here before her season suddenly ended. This Chad Brown (25 percent) pupil might need one off the bench, but it’s encouraging to see Irad Ortiz Jr. (18 percent) aboard.

How I’d bet it: $10 exacta box 3/8

Race 8

No. 10 John the Beer Man (5-2, morning-line favorite) was difficult to load on debut and broke slowly, but he made up a ton of late ground to take fifth at Gulfstream. Brown wins with 30 percent of his first-time routers, and Tyler Gaffalione (18 percent) takes over. No. 9 St. Neots (7-2) placed in three of his first four route tries, with a troubled run over this course being the exception, before misfiring at Ellis Park and hitting the shelf. The gelding came back with a solid third-place effort down in Florida off an extended layoff, and he makes plenty of sense racing second off the bench today. No. 12 Special Dispatch (8-1) and No. 7 Hamilton Way (10-1) should both be heard from late if they carry their respective Fair Grounds form into this.

How I’d bet it: $8 exacta 10/9, $5 exacta 10/7,12, $2 exacta 9/10

Robert Criscola is a free-lance handicapper based in New York.