Wednesday wagers: Making a case for Carbonite at Churchill
The fall meet at Churchill Downs rolls on this Wednesday with a nine-race program. All of these heats are on dirt, including the featured eighth race allowance. Let’s dive into my five favorite plays on the day.
Best bet: Carbonite (Race 6)
Best value bet: Chief Howcome (Race 4)
Race 3
No. 2 Big Java (3-1) outfinished No. 6 Dallas Volunteer (5-2, morning-line favorite) by a neck less than two weeks ago at Keeneland, and the result should remain the same at Churchill on Wednesday. The latter goes first off the claim for Chris Hartman (19 percent), but loses Luis Saez for Chris Landeros. The top pick retains Tyler Gaffalione. No. 5 Spare a Dime (7-2) could break up the exacta if she’s able to carry her strong maiden-breaking performance at Belterra to this course.
How I’d bet it (based on a $100 budget): $10 exacta 2/6, $4 exacta 2/5, $4 exacta 6/2, $2 exacta 6/5
Race 4
No. 2 Chief Howcome (15-1) holds long-shot appeal as a relative unknown on fast dirt. He held his own against low-level claimers on turf at Belterra this summer and has never been this low on this surface. No. 8 Released (5-1) invades from Mountaineer off his third win of the campaign, with his other two triumphs occurring against allowance foes at Thistledown this summer. Gaffalione sees fit to climb aboard. No. 10 Higher Authority (5-1) was a winner at this level and surface at Colonial earlier this year.
How I’d bet it: $8 win/place 2, $2 exacta box 2/8
Race 6
No. 1 Carbonite (7-2) heads back up the class level off the Joe Sharp claim (15 percent), but bettors shouldn’t be put off. His last-out speed figure suggests he’s the one to beat in this heat, and Luis Saez should get this speedster in good early position from the rail. No. 7 American Icon (5-2, morning-line favorite) lures Gaffalione away from the top choice and takes a sizable drop in class – respect. No. 2 Pledgeofallegiance (3-1) is tough to trust on top at 1-for-20 lifetime, but his back-to-back in-the-money finishes against starter allowance foes over this course earlier this year are hard to ignore.
How I’d bet it: $8 exacta 1/2,7, $4 exacta 7/1
Race 7
No. 3 Hitting Bombs (4-1) hasn’t been to the races in nearly a year, but he adds Lasix and ran second on two straight occasions against similar foes before hitting the shelf. His speed figures are certainly strong enough to top these. No. 2 Floki’s Flight (3-1, morning-line favorite) has five runner-up results from six lifetime starts and steps up from the maiden claiming ranks here. That’s not normally a recipe for success, but his speed ratings make him a logical threat. No. 7 War Room (7-2) tired badly routing at Keeneland when last seen but attracts Gaffalione while scaling back in distance for this one.
How I’d bet it: $14 win 3, $3 exacta box 2/3
Race 8
No. 1 Grantham (7-2) was a game second in the Tampa Bay Derby when last seen and is working well for his return with Lasix added. Saez jumps off for No. 6 Ben Diesel (5-2, morning-line favorite), but Gerardo Corrales has won seven of his last 21 mounts for Mike Maker. Ben Diesel was aggressively campaigned on the Derby trail earlier this year but just wasn’t up to snuff. However, he was a narrowly beaten second when last seen at Keeneland against allowance rivals. No. 3 Classic Moment (4-1) goes for high-percentage connections in Gaffalione and Steve Asmussen (23 percent hit rate over the last two months) and won his lone prior start at Churchill – consider.
How I’d bet it: $14 win 1, $3 exacta box 1/6
Robert Criscola is a free-lance handicapper based in New York.