Wednesday Wagers: Hail to Super Chief at Saratoga

It looks like we’re in for more wet weather at Saratoga on Wednesday, but I’ll try to make the best of it with picks for five of the day’s nine races, including the featured De La Rose Stakes.

Best bet: Super Chief (race 2)

Best value bet: Nottoway (race 7)

Race 2

No. 4 Super Chief (9-2) looked much more at home vs. high-level claimers last time out than he did vs. graded stakes rivals two back. The trainer switch to Mike Maker intrigues as he ships in from Santa Anita, and he should get plenty of pace to chase. No. 7 Sin Nombre (20-1) is a threat to hit the ticket at boxcar odds if he repeats his last-out effort. No. 2 Certified Loverboy (8-5, morning-line favorite) takes a somewhat suspicious drop in class after a runaway win vs. starter allowance foes. If he’s right, he could romp, but he’s worth having action against.

How I’d bet it, based on a $100 budget: $2 exacta box 2/4/7, $8 win 4

Race 4

No. 8 Bob John Ray (5-2, morning-line favorite) and No. 5 Toscano (3-1) both have the pedigree to go long as they share Medaglia d’Oro on the dam side, but the former gets the nod having gone this distance successfully before. As long as Manny Franco can keep this Chad Brown pupil from going too wide, he should prevail. Toscano is training forwardly at Hawthorne for Larry Rivelli for his first route try. Irad Ortiz Jr. once again has the call off a solid effort over this course during Belmont Stakes weekend. No. 1 Jaa Mode (9-2) is not the most consistent runner in the bunch but is capable of hitting the ticket on his best day.

How I’d bet it: $7 exacta box 5/8, $3 exacta 5,8/1

Race 7

This race is scheduled for the main track yet could be the one most impacted by a muddy surface. Contenders on fast dirt include Khozy My Boy and Hatch, but their off-track form is dismal. In a low-level claimer that’s always ripe for an upset, I’ll side with No. 8 Nottoway (15-1), who lures Franco off highly rated races from Laurel and Finger Lakes. I don’t think he’s in over his head here, and I’ll happily back him regardless of track condition, especially at these odds. No. 10 Proven Hope (9-2) should be rolling late on a major class drop – note the two big efforts in the mud at Aqueduct last winter. No. 6 Daddy Knows (8-1) has completed the exacta in three straight – consider underneath.

How I’d bet it: $10 win/place 8

Race 8

No. 3 Spirit And Glory (5-2, morning-line favorite) has run consistently faster than these on both firm and off goings this year and is a neck away from being a three-time stakes winner in 2024. No. 9 Evvie Jets (7-2) possesses the speed to keep the top one in check and gets what should be a helpful drop in class while luring Flavien Prat. No. 10 Midnight Mile (5-1) showed significant improvement in her second stateside start – the lone Brown trainee with Ortiz in the irons will be in the picture late.

How I’d bet it: $6 exacta box 3/9, $3 exacta 3,9/10, $2 exacta 3/9

Dirt picks: 2-6-1

Race 9

No. 4 Houlton (4-1) is drilling bullets for his return to dirt on a class drop for Bill Mott, who adds Lasix for this son of American Pharoah. No. 5 Bold Ambition (7-2, morning-line favorite) and No. 6 Dark Devil (9-2) have both shown tendencies to settle for minor placings early in their respective careers, but all hope is not lost. The former adds blinkers while trying a new low for Saffie Joseph, and the latter goes first time out for Brad Cox.

How I’d bet it: $2 exacta box 4/5/6, $1 exacta key box 4/5,6, $2 exacta 4/5,6

Robert Criscola is a free-lance handicapper based in New York.