Wednesday wagers: Guitar Solo is top pick at Fair Grounds
As we close in on Louisiana Derby Day, Fair Grounds has added Wednesday racing to its schedule. Let’s take a look at an intriguing nine-race card, where I have picks for five of the day’s events.
Best bet: Guitar Solo (race 7)
Best value bet: Zoe’s Prime (race 6)
Race 2
No. 4 Freeform (3-1) showed improved early speed and renewed late interest when stretching out to a mile to break her maiden last time out. I’m usually not a fan of the “lightbulb” angle, but I’m buying the dramatic improvement from this daughter of American Freedom and expect her to make it two in a row vs. modest opponents. No. 6 Macee (9-5, morning-line favorite) shifts over from the state-bred, $5,000 ranks and boasts some of the best speed figures in the field – logical alternative. No. 2 Lily’s Creed (3-1) tries a new low and could be primed to take advantage of a speed duel between the top two if it comes to fruition.
How I’d bet it (based on a $100 budget): $7 exacta box 4/6, $3 exacta 4,6/2
Race 3
No. 8 Loyal to the Chief (9-2) has been noted as racing on her left lead and tiring in the stretch two straight times heading into this. She gets a jockey change to Jareth Loveberry (15 percent), and if he can correct that bad habit, the daughter of Speighter Man could have more to offer late. Loyal to the Chief would dominate this group with a repeat of her three-back effort. No. 9 Cced for Steph (8-5, morning-line favorite) has demonstrated issues with stamina going past five furlongs with no clear excuses – tough to trust but the main danger to the top choice nonetheless. No. 2 Mrs. Necaise (5-1) is capable of landing a small share as she gets her preferred surface and distance. Ben Curtis (16 percent) sees fit to climb aboard.
How I’d bet it: $10 win 8, $3 exacta box 8/9, $2 exacta 8,9/2
Race 6
No. 1 Zoe’s Prime (9-2) was off slowly on debut and rallied wide but still earned a strong speed figure. The blinkers come off, and trainer Jose Camejo wins at 20 percent with this move. Expect her to take a step forward in her second lifetime start. No. 6 Candy Lover (5-2, morning-line favorite) has one turf try under her belt, and it was a flop going longer at Saratoga last summer. She becomes tougher to count on as the losses pile up, so this might be her last best chance. No. 9 Lady Aberdeen (7-2) has Florent Geroux (25 percent) once again as she switches surfaces, and trainer Brendan Walsh wins at 15 percent with first-time turfers.
How I’d bet it: $10 win 1, $5 exacta box 1/6
Race 7
No. 4 Guitar Solo (8-5, morning-line favorite) has demonstrated serious talent in her two career wins and has had legitimate excuses in her losses (fast pace, stretchout). I expect her to repeat her two-back effort, a 2 1/4-length triumph over No. 1 Freeburn (2-1) in the $100,000 Louisiana Futurity, and find the winner’s circle once again. Freeburn’s last two starts, a no-excuses fade coupled with a runaway win that wasn’t all that fast on paper, do not suggest she can turn the tables on the top choice, but she should complete a chalk exacta. No. 6 Cankton's Cowgirl (10-1) ships in from Delta Downs off two straight victories vs. lesser – best of the rest.
How I’d bet it: $16 exacta 4/1, $4 exacta 4/6
Race 8
No. 7 Hero Worship (2-1, morning-line favorite) showed massive improvement speed-figure wise when trying turf last time out and was only narrowly beaten – can easily atone here for potent connections in Geroux and Brad Cox (28 percent). No. 2 Map to the Stars (9-2) had far from a smooth trip yet still got second in her only prior effort, and adding Lasix and getting Brian Hernandez Jr. (17 percent) in the irons signals intent. No. 8 Lucchesi (9-2) cost $175,000 at auction and has flashed some talent in his morning works for Al Stall, who is a wanting 9 percent with first-time turfers – use underneath at least.
How I’d bet it: $12 exacta 7/2, $4 exacta 7/8, $4 exacta 2/7
Robert Criscola is a free-lance handicapper based in New York.