Wednesday wagers: Fredericia shouldn’t fail at Horseshoe Indy
A strong card is on tap for Wednesday at Horseshoe Indianapolis featuring nine Thoroughbred events, including a pair of state-bred stakes. Let’s dive into my five favorite races on the program.
Best bet: Fredericia (race 1)
Best value bet: Fortin Hill (race 8)
Race 1
No. 3 Fredericia (7-2) was a narrowly beaten second vs. tougher three back. She takes a big drop in class and cuts back in distance, and trainer Randy Klopp fires at 30 percent with that latter move. No. 6 Dare Me (5-2, morning-line favorite) is a two-time defeated favorite already at the meet vs. similar foes but hit the board in each of those efforts for Steve Asmussen (35 percent). No. 1 Sister Saint (5-1) can land a share with a repeat of his two-back effort at this course and distance.
How I’d bet it (based on a $100 budget): $12 exacta 3/1,6
Race 4
No. 8 Western Avenue (6-1) cost $300k at auction as a yearling and is training forwardly for his debut. Brendan Walsh is running well at the meet (24 percent), and although his firsters typically need a start (10 percent on debut), there are too many positives to ignore at this price as Declan Cannon (27 percent) climbs aboard. No. 5 Washington's Union (8-1) was solid second in his initial turf try – consider. No. 9 Coach Petro (7-2) has strong turf races to run back to from last summer at Saratoga, but his recent form is lacking.
How I’d bet it: $2 exacta box 5/8/9, $4 win 8
Race 6
No. 10 Tall Girl (3-1, morning-line favorite) held her own vs. much tougher in Florida earlier this year – short price looms. No. 9 Luminist (7-2) is tough to trust on top considering her career record (20: 1-8-6), but she’s been in the money in eight of 11 turf tries to date. No. 5 Livy B (5-1) found allowance foes too tough when last seen but was 3/4 lengths behind Luminist when last seen vs. claimers.
How I’d bet it: $10 exacta 10/5,9
Race 8
No. 7 Fortin Hill (6-1) impressed here and at Keeneland in a three-start sample before being thrown to the wolves in the Grade 1 Churchill Downs last time out. This is a much softer spot for the reliable son of Mucho Macho Man. No. 11 Nobody Listens (7-2, morning-line favorite) has won five of 10 career starts on fast dirt and looks like the one to catch. No. 5 New Year's Fever (10-1) should be involved early and has won four times in seven races at Horseshoe Indy.
How I’d bet it: $4 exacta box 7/11, $3 exacta 7,11/5, $6 win 7
Race 9
No. 8 Tourastar (3-1, morning-line favorite) nearly wired a similar group off an 11-month layoff – can atone here. No. 9 Little Gray Flower (9-2) and No. 11 Emerson’s Dream (7-2) both seem somewhat dependent on trip, but the competition behind them for place and show honors is not very fierce.
How I’d bet it: $10 exacta 8/9,11
Robert Criscola is a free-lance handicapper based in New York.