Wednesday wagers: Empirical View looks logical at Keeneland
Another eight-race card at Keeneland is in store for Wednesday afternoon with beautiful weather expected. Here are my picks for five of these heats.
Best bet: Empirical View (race 7)
Best value bet: Knicks Storm (race 8)
Race 3
This one looks like a two-horse race between No. 1 East Shore (5-2) and No. 7 Windy Bay (8-5, morning-line favorite), and I’ll give a slight edge to the former at a better price. Although Windy Bay beat East Shore in their lone prior meeting by five lengths, the top pick broke through the gate before the race was run. Windy Bay’s case of seconditis is becoming troubling too. No. 8 I Feel the Need (7-2) might be a bit slower than the top two on paper but takes a drop in class – not impossible for a piece.
How I’d bet it, based on a $100 budget: $7 exacta box 1-7, $3 exacta 1,7-8
Race 4
No. 5 Thestral (2-1, morning-line favorite) ran by No. 4 Sandra D (4-1) when they met at Churchill on Sept. 21 and just missed the victory. She’s a highly sensible favorite returning to Keeneland, where she missed graduating by only a nose in her second lifetime start last year. Sandra D profiles as the controlling speed and is a threat to take them all the way. No. 8 C C Cruise Control (12-1) ran two decent dirt races at Ellis this summer, consider underneath.
How I’d bet it: $10 exacta 5-4, $4 exacta 5-8, $4 exacta 4-5, $2 exacta 4-8
Race 6
No. 1 Insignia (7-2) has more than a puncher’s chance of defeating No. 4 Punchbowl, who figures to be odds-on as the 4-5 morning line choice. Insignia has the recency edge over her Brad Cox stablemate as well as two well-rated route wins under her belt. Her last effort, where she was beaten at odds-on, could be forgiven as she was far back early. Punchbowl merits respect off two career wins and a narrow miss in the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes before hitting the shelf, but the work tab could be better. No. 2 Shezz Koldazice (15-1) could get lost in the wagering a bit because of the unofficial Cox entry. Her Saratoga form shouldn’t be sold short, but she’ll need a perfect trip to threaten for the win.
How I’d bet it: $7 exacta box 1-4, $3 exacta 1,4-2
Race 7
No. 1 Empirical View (6-1) steps up off a maiden score, but that was a well-rated effort at Kentucky Downs and the stretchout should prove to be a big help. The most recent work was strong too. No. 3 Tituba (8-1) wisely cuts back from 1 1/2 miles, and her two-back try going seven panels puts her in the win discussion. No. 5 Hola Gata (2-1, morning-line favorite) and No. 7 Holy Foley (7-2) both make sense on speed figures, but they need some pace to put forth their best efforts.
How I’d bet it: $8 win 1, $2 exacta key box 1-3,5,7
Race 8
No. 7 Knicks Storm (9-2) flashes bullet works ahead of his unveiling for 13 percent first-out winning sire Dialed In. He does run for a tag, but it’s a steep one and the fact he cost only $35k at auction makes that fact less alarming. No. 2 Runnin Munnin (6-1) was a decent fourth in his initial try vs. similar – experience edge could put him over the top. No. 10 Army Kid (20-1) had a solid five-furlong drill here to prep for his first-ever start along with strong works at Canterbury. Don’t dismiss at long odds.
How I’d bet it: $2 exacta box 2-7-10, $2 exacta box 2-7, $4 win 7
Robert Criscola is a free-lance handicapper based in New York.