Wednesday wagers: 5-pack of picks for tricky Churchill card

Churchill’s nine-race Wednesday program contains seven races exclusively for claimers. Heats such as this can be difficult to navigate, but I’ll do the best I can to help you along with my five-pack of picks.

Best bet: Dunphy, race 1

Best value bet: Ocean Pointe, race 8

Race 1

No. 4 Dunphy (even, morning-line favorite) crushed the competition at this level two-back before just missing vs. tougher – respect on the class drop under Edgar Morales (16 percent). No. 3 Family Factor (2-1) earned his only win in his only prior try for a tag – fits with these and lures Tyler Gaffalione (17 oercent). No. 5 Point At You (10-1) looks like a live long shot shipping in from Belterra. An upset win might be off the table, but this son of Runhappy can sweeten the exotics.

How I’d bet it, based on a $100 budget: $6 exacta 4-3, $4 exacta 4-5, $6 trifecta 4-3-5, $4 trifecta 4-5-3

Race 3

No. 4 Kentucky Bourbon (4-1) was in good form earlier this year, especially at Churchill, but piled up losses over the summer. However, There were legitimate excuses, such as a muddy track, a speed-favoring track, the wrong distance and competition that was simply too tough. This son of California Chrome looks to be set up for success in this spot. No. 3 Tropic Storm (5-2, morning-line favorite) is a logical alternative off his third-place result here two weeks ago. No. 5 Enjoyment (8-1) tries a new low as he attempts to recapture his decent 2022 form.

How I’d bet it: $7 exacta box 3-4, $3 exacta 3-4,5

Race 4

No. 2 Fasta Lavista Baby (7-2) has hit the board in two straight vs. slightly cheaper but might need only a ground-saving journey to earn a trip to the winner’s circle here. No. 3 Gold Del Mar (6-1) takes a major class drop and has a two-back effort at Keeneland that puts her in the hunt. No. 5 Dancing Nancy (4-1) goes first off the claim for Joe Sharp (15 percent) and gets Gaffalione in the irons. Note the sharp tune-up work at Ellis for this.

How I’d bet it: $2 exacta box 2-3-5, $4 exacta 2-3,5

Race 6

No. 2 Allege (4-1) figures to have a tactical edge up front, especially with Luis Saez aboard. Mike Maker wins with 17 percent of his runners going first off a claim. No. 4 Search Engine (7-2) is logical based on the speed figures he earned in his last two starts going nine furlongs on dirt. The extra half-furlong shouldn’t hinder him. No. 1 Ethical Judgement (3-1) intrigues on the class drop for Brendan Walsh, who wins at a 36 percent clip with horses dropping in for a tag for the first time.

How I’d bet it: $10 exacta 2-4, $4 exacta 2-1, $4 exacta 4-2, $2 exacta 4-1

Race 8

No. 6 Ocean Pointe (6-1) blew away allowance foes two back before finding stakes company too tough. That hesitant start from the rail when last seen didn’t help either. Heading back down the class ladder should get this son of Kitten’s Joy home at a nice price. No. 1 Fearless Soldier (5-2, morning-line favorite) crushed a salty allowance field at Kentucky Downs in his last try on turf – consider. No. 2 Wizard of Westwood (3-1) figures to make an impact dropping out of stakes competition and adding Lasix. Jockey Gerardo Corrales (23 percent) is off to a strong start at the meet.

How I’d bet it: $10 win 6, $5 exacta box 1-6

Robert Criscola is a free-lance handicapper based in New York.