Wednesday wagers: Don’t pass over Goshen at Keeneland
An eight-race card is in store at Keeneland Wednesday, with two races scheduled for turf in peril of being rained off. I’ll stick to the confirmed dirt races for my five-pack of picks.
Best bet: Up the Creek (race 1)
Best value bet: Goshen (Race 5)
Race 1
No. 2 Up the Creek (3-1) had two uninspiring efforts vs. tougher at Turfway, but a repeat of her debut on conventional dirt at Churchill could be good enough to beat these. No. 3 Blue Eyed Soul (2-1, morning-line favorite) was a highly rated runner-up at 2 last spring before returning with a decent second on synthetic last month – logical alternative. No. 4 Charm of the Song (4-1) will be rolling late while dropping in class.
How I’d bet it (based on a $100 budget): $10 exacta 2/3, $5 exacta 2/4, $5 exacta 3/2
Race 3
No. 7 Anna’s Wish (9-5, morning-line favorite) was overmatched in the Cicada Stakes last time out but ran a figure two back that would crush these, and Tyler Gaffalione takes over. No. 3 First Hill (7-2) has not had much success on dirt before, but she’s clearly taken a step forward in her last two tries for new trainer James Watkins. No. 2 Center Stage (6-1) and No. 5 Classic Performer (4-1) have the speed figures to justify betting for place honors if First Hill falters.
How I’d bet it: $8 exacta 7/3, $4 exacta 7/2,5
Race 4
No. 12 Top of the Street (2-1, morning-line favorite) is a bit tough to trust at 0-for-9 lifetime, especially from this post, but this is a significant class drop. He should not be adversely impacted by an off track, and his best career speed figure came in a route race. Brian Hernandez Jr. and Ken McPeek have teamed up to win with 22 percent of their mounts in the last 60 days. No. 13 Cashmeup (6-1) needs to draw in off the also-eligible list but ran well for a near victory in his first start off the Linda Rice claim at Turfway. He could be sitting on a career-best here. If Cashmeup scratches, No. 2 Photo Op (6-1) and No. 4 Moonovermontgomery (12-1) are the next-best options. The former could improve moving to conventional dirt, while the latter should appreciate the distance.
How I’d bet it: $10 exacta box 12/13 or $2 exacta box 2/4/12, $2 exacta key box 12/2,4
Race 5
No. 1 Goshen (8-1) looks like good value on paper with Gaffalione getting a leg up. If she can replicate her facile previous win over fast dirt at Churchill, she’s a major threat here. No. 3 Ghostly Night (3-1) carries her form well on all kinds of surfaces and lures Irad Ortiz Jr. – consider. No. 10 Samarita (8-5, morning-line favorite) padded her lifetime record at Hawthorne last summer, and although she did win over this course last fall, her last-out effort at the Fair Grounds on a wet surface was a dud. Thusly, she’s tough to have faith in at this price.
How I’d bet it: $10 exacta box 1/3, $4 win 1
Race 7
No. 2 Native Land (3-1) put it all together in his third career start, romping vs. maidens. He enters this race with a bullet work to his name, and he’s already proven that a muddy track won’t bother him. No. 5 Rocketeer (7-2) was an impressive debut winner at Keeneland last fall but hasn’t been seen since. Brad Cox has this one working well for his comeback, and Lasix will be added. No. 6 More Vino (8-1) gets Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard in his second lifetime start for Todd Pletcher – could improve off that modest win over four others at Tampa based on recent morning drills.
How I’d bet it: $2 exacta box 2/5/6, $2 exacta box 2/5, $2 exacta 2/5,6