Wednesday wagers: Divisibility looks tough in Churchill nightcap
The horse racing world is eagerly anticipating the 2022 Breeders’ Cup, which will be held at Keeneland in Lexington, Ky., on Friday and Saturday. But before that happens, horseplayers can pad their bankroll at Louisville’s Churchill Downs on Wednesday afternoon, as there is a 10-race card in store. I discuss my five favorite heats below.
Best bet: Divisibility (race 10)
Best value bet: Levy (race 1)
Race 1
No. 6 Levy (7-2) takes a precipitous drop in class, giving him a decisive edge over suspect foes. Luis Saez climbs aboard this son of Gun Runner with three in-the-money finishes in 2022. No. 5 Seven and Seven (4-1) has not raced since 2020 but finds a soft spot for his return. He was competitive against maiden claimers before hitting the shelf. No. 2 My Favorite Uncle (2-1, morning-line favorite) has never been this low on dirt, but his 0-for-22 record makes him tough to trust on top despite the strong speed figures and the presence of Tyler Gaffalione.
How I’d bet it (based on a $100 budget): $3 exacta box 2/5/6, $2 exacta 6/2,5
Race 2
No. 3 Oncoming Train (5-2, morning-line favorite) is 1-for-20 lifetime but looks like the one to beat based on the speed figures earned in his last two races, both in-the-money finishes. The Gregory Foley trainee shows a sharp tune-up drill for this. No. 1 Bankroll (6-1) likely will try to wire this field from the rail on the class drop – consider. No. 6 Romancer (3-1) seemingly preferred the turf as a juvenile, but his first two starts over the grass this year were duds. Steve Asmussen drops this one down and puts him back on dirt – far from impossible.
How I’d bet it: $8 exacta 3/1,6
Race 4
No. 6 Cotton Candy Annie (8-5, morning-line favorite) has hit the board in three of four career dirt starts but has not demonstrated much stamina in the stretch. But heading down the class ladder could be just what the doctor ordered for this daughter of Sharp Azteca. No. 7 Tribal Spirit (8-1) was off slowly on debut but showed plenty of late interest. She drops in class and stretches out to a route, making her appealing at a price. No. 5 Gray Frost (10-1) was rolling late against slightly easier when last seen; don’t overlook.
How I’d bet it: $5 exacta 6/5,7, $1 exacta box 5/6/7, $4 win 7
Race 8
No. 8 Western River (5-2, morning-line favorite) settled for fourth in the 1 1/2-mile Greenwood Cup (G3) when last seen, but this is an easier spot for the son of Tapit who relishes long-distance races. He took an N1X allowance race over this course and distance in June in a romp. No. 5 Silver Dust (12-1) looked to have lost interest in racing this year, but woke back up going first off the claim for Thomas Vance at Keeneland last time out. The $1 million earner has never gone this distance, but he’s also by Tapit. No. 4 Scarlet Fusion (3-1) drilled a bullet going three furlongs and switches to Saez for this – certainly fast enough to wire these or at least hold on for a share. No. 6 Full Charge (20-1) is not the most consistent or classiest runner of the bunch, but he has a win at 1 3/16 miles on dirt to his credit, so stamina shouldn’t be an issue.
How I’d bet it: $5 exacta 8/4,5, $3 exacta 8/6, $5 win 5, $2 win 6
Race 10
No. 9 Divisibility (3-1, morning-line favorite) impressed as the only firster in the field on Oct. 13 at Keeneland, beating all but one of nine rivals, and that was a heavy favorite. With expected improvement, she’ll be tough to top. No. 2 Unkept Secret (4-1) rallied for second against slightly weaker foes in her career unveiling, logical alternative. No. 1 Homecoming Queen (4-1) is working well in the mornings for Rodolphe Brisset (13 percent with firsters), but Saez will have to ensure she gets away cleanly from the rail. No. 3 Girl Afraid (7-2) has five ITM results from seven starts, making her difficult to leave out of the exotics.
How I’d bet it: $2 trifecta 9/1,2,3/1,2,3, $1 trifecta 9/1,2/1,2,3, $1 trifecta box 1/2/9
Robert Criscola is a free-lance handicapper based in New York.