Wednesday wagers: Csilla is a solid bet at Tampa Bay

Let’s take a look at Wednesday’s nine-race program at Tampa Bay Downs.

Best bet: Csilla (race 1)

Best value bet: Sara Kali (race 5)

Race 1

No. 5 Csilla (5-2) has been holding her own against conditional claimers at the meet, finally breaking through for a score last time out at this seven-furlong distance. She’s been much better since getting seven-pound apprentice Laureano Sosa (9 percent) aboard, and this lateral move in class shouldn’t stop her momentum based on speed figures. No. 2 Beautiful Tiz (2-1) has completed the exacta in each of her last two tries on dirt at this level – respect with Samy Camacho (25 percent) in the irons. No. 4 Ready to Film (8-5, morning-line favorite) ran behind the second choice in two of her last three starts. She could still get a piece today, but don’t be shocked if she doesn’t go off favored.

How I’d bet it (based on a $100 budget): $10 exacta 5/2,4

Race 3

No. 2 Ronstadt (7-2) has won two straight, avenging a loss earlier at the meet to No. 3 Smart as Me (3-1). In a race lacking true pace, he’s the most likely candidate to make his own trip. Smart as Me has won two straight since that defeat to the top selection, but he took advantage of some great setups to do it. No. 5 Harrow (6-5, morning-line favorite) should win if he replicates his most recent victory, but he’s not the most consistent runner in the bunch – don’t settle for a short price.

How I’d bet it: $6 exacta 2/3,5, $3 exacta 3,5/2

Race 4

No. 6 Sogno Di Campione (5-2) settled for second behind No. 2 Chicks Dig Scars (8-5, morning-line favorite) when last seen, but he was coming off a July-to-March layoff. With the rust shaken off, he’s capable of turning the tables based on his two-back effort. Chicks Dig Scars sported back-to-back fourth-place efforts before cashing in as the chalk last time out – inconsistent sort will likely be an underlay here. No. 5 Machismo (4-1) has never won over this course but has four in-the-money finishes in four tries, including a second at this level two back.

How I’d bet it: $10 exacta 6/2, $4 exacta 2/6, $4 exacta 6/5, $2 exacta 2/5

Race 5

No. 4 Sara Kali (6-1) tried to force the pace before fading against tougher in her turf debut. She gets a live rider change to Hector Diaz Jr. (15 percent) on the class drop – look for her to take these gate-to-wire with almost no early speed foes on paper. No. 2 Cayman Queen (3-1, morning-line favorite) has encountered one slow pace after another at the meet and could get another one on Wednesday. But she has two in-the-money results in three lifetime turf races, so she looks like a must-use in the exotics. No. 8 Kharkiv (7-2) was a reluctant leader when last seen in a runner-up performance – easy to see her chasing the top one all the way around and completing a merry-go-round exacta.

How I’d bet it: $10 win 4, $2 exacta box 2/4/8

Race 9

No. 1 Stirling’s Gold (3-1) gets a tepid nod shipping in from Indiana and trying a new low off a 10-month layoff. Daniel Centeno climbs aboard this son of Midnight Storm who has solid career speed figures for this level. No. 6 Takeover Kash (2-1, morning-line favorite) has hit the board in three straight races under similar circumstances, but has lacked a winning kick each time. Tough to settle for a short price on, but logical nonetheless switching to Camacho. No. 2 Lord of the Nile (9-2) has traded head-to-head wins and losses with Takeover Kash in his last three starts – could play spoiler for second here.

How I’d bet it: $7 exacta box 1/6, $3 exacta 1,6/2

Robert Criscola is a free-lance handicapper based in New York.