Wednesday wagers: Coleridge can win in Keeneland comeback
Get ready for the first Wednesday card of the Keeneland fall meet with my analysis of five of the track's eight races.
Best bet: Bonus Appreciation (race 1)
Best value bet: Coleridge (race 8)
Race 1
No. 5 Bonus Appreciation (4-1) has had his form plenty dirtied up by failed turf tries and allowance races against tougher on dirt, but this is a spot where he has won as recently as July 23 at Ellis Park. No. 1 Classic King (3-1, morning-line favorite) picks up Florent Geroux as he tries to carry his form from Horseshoe Indianapolis and Belterra to this course. No. 3 Arthurian (7-2) has alternated wins with off-the-board results in four races this season and lures Irad Ortiz Jr. here.
How I’d bet it (Based on a $100 budget): $10 exacta 5/1,3
Race 4
No. 5 Writeitontheice (5-1) looks well-matched with these based on speed figures going second off the claim for Tom Amoss, who wins at 29 percent with this move. No. 2 Sono Grato (3-1, morning-line favorite) gets needed class relief today – a hot pace would help his chances, and he figures to get it. No. 3 One More Baby (9-2) could get first run at the tiring leaders, and goes first off the claim for Robertino Diodoro (25 percent).
How I’d bet it: $3 exacta box 2/3/5
Race 5
No. 2 Two Birds (15-1) was a creditable third when last seen in his turf debut at Kentucky Downs. This is a step up in class, but the stretchout should help immensely and the price is right. No. 13 Catnip (6-1) is a win threat after dropping out of the Virginia Derby but must draw in off the also-eligible list. No. 6 Martini’nmoonshine (7-2, morning-line favorite) and No. 4 Policy Option (9-2) were heads apart for second in a similar spot at Kentucky Downs – the edge goes to the former, who won that photo and hasn’t raced since. The latter had a dull effort at Churchill on dirt last month.
How I’d bet it: $3 exacta key box 2/4,6,13, $4 win 2
Race 7
No. 1 Forbidden Secret (8-1) put it all together in his third lifetime outing for Todd Pletcher, who finds a great spot to enter this son of Outwork who might like to go longer distances. Ortiz will have the call on this recent blowout winner. No. 10 Hayes Strike (12-1) lost all chance in the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill after encountering traffic trouble in the stretch. The impressive two-back maiden breaker could rediscover the winner’s circle at a price here. No. 4 Traffic Master (6-1) earned a diploma at 46-1 when last seen – look for him to be involved late.
How I’d bet it: $5 exacta box 1/10, $6 win 1, $4 win 10
Race 8
No. 7 Coleridge (12-1) hasn’t competed since January, when he unleashed a devastating stretch kick to win his second lifetime start going away, albeit he had a fast pace to close into. He drilled a bullet for his return to the races for Bill Mott, who fires at 19 percent with extended layoff runners. A victory for Coleridge could cap off an incredible day for Ortiz. No. 5 Bay Street Money (7-2) has been a little camera-shy in his career (1-for-13, five runner-up finishes), but the trainer switch to Mike Maker could put him over the top. No. 8 Greatheart (6-1) should finish with interest under Julien Leparoux.
How I’d bet it: $10 win/place 7
Robert Criscola is a free-lance handicapper based in New York.