Wednesday wagers: Caramel Chip can crush it at Keeneland
For the first Wednesday of the spring meet at Keeneland, I highlight my five favorite heats on the eight-race program.
Best bet: Caramel Chip (race 8)
Best value bet: Solid Country Gold (race 5)
Race 3
No. 4 The Princess Says (7-2) showed significantly improved speed in her second career start. Another step forward could be coming, and it’s encouraging to see Irad Ortiz Jr. take the assignment. No. 3 Amaretti (even, morning-line favorite) should win if she builds upon her unveiling at Belmont, but she hasn’t been seen since that June effort. But the return work pattern is strong for Bill Mott, and Flavien Prat has the call. No. 6 Blame the Toll (6-1) has shown speed before fading in consecutive route tries – might appreciate the turnback in distance.
How I’d bet it (based on a $100 budget): $10 exacta box 3/4, $3 exacta 3, 4/6
Race 4
No. 6 Heartbreaker (5-2) has endured stops and starts in his brief career, but it's hard to knock the fact he’s hit the board in three straight starts, including his lone victory on dirt. He returns off a June layoff as a new gelding for Phil D’Amato and gets Reylu Gutierrez in the irons. No. 10 Keen Heir (6-1) has hit the board in two of his last three tries – could be sitting on a lifetime best going second off a layoff. No. 9 Color Field (8-1) posted his career-high speed figure in his victory two back over a fast track.
How I’d bet it: $8 exacta 6/9, 10
Race 5
No. 7 Solid Country Gold (15-1) owns a solid 6: 2-1-1 record over the grass, and that does not include a respectable fourth-place effort at the Fair Grounds last time out where he rallied off a sluggish pace. The Wayne Catalano trainee is working well heading into this – long shot appeal. No. 13 Maasai Warrior (7-2) narrowly beat the top choice in New Orleans when last seen and was a runaway winner in his turf debut two back. He’s a major player if he draws in off the also-eligible list. No. 8 Dripping Gold (5-2, morning-line favorite) is somewhat difficult to trust on top based on his 9: 1-2-1 lifetime record (all turf), but this distance change might work out for him. No. 3 Jarreau (3-1) and No. 12 Policy Option (9-2) also merit inclusion on horizontal and deep exotic tickets.
How I’d bet it: $8 win/place 7
Race 6
No. 5 Captain Jack (15-1) could make it two straight upsets in the sixth. He won with a strong speed figure against maiden claimers at Gulfstream when last seen and once again will have 10-pound apprentice Yoel Navas aboard. This is only the third career start for Captain Jack, so there still might be room to grow. No. 7 Street Swagg (6-1) romped over maidens at Churchill before hitting the shelf, then returned to run third against winners last month. He could be dangerous dropping slightly in class with the rust shaken off. No. 6 Money Run (7-5, morning-line favorite) can beat these on his best day, but he’s struggled with consistency. Note the uninspiring 6: 1-0-2 lifetime record on fast dirt.
How I’d bet it: $2 exacta box 5/6/7, $5 win/place 5
Race 8
No. 1 Caramel Chip (6-5, morning-line favorite) looks like a shoo-in against these if he can carry his Gulfstream form over to Keeneland. He’s hit the exacta in each of his last four starts, and he holds a significant speed figure edge. No. 7 Two Worlds (9-2) hasn’t missed the exacta in four starts under the care of Brittany Vanden Berg (three wins), and was third in his only prior try over this course. No. 10 High Heater (4-1) has been effective against claiming company out west and lures Tyler Gaffalione.
How I’d bet it: $12 exacta 1/7, $8 exacta 1/10
Robert Criscola is a free-lance handicapper based in New York.