Wednesday wagers: Picks for 5 races at Tampa Bay Downs
Another nine-race card awaits fans and bettors at Tampa Bay Downs on Wednesday, with four heats taking place over the turf course. I’ll take a look at two of those contests in my five-pack of wagering picks on the program.
Best bet: Can’t Complain (race 5)
Best value bet: Derby Gift (race 2)
Race 2
No. 1 Derby Gift (8-1) can produce an upset if she’s able to build on her runaway debut score. I’m willing to forgive her non-effort on synthetic when last seen. Antonio Gallardo climbs aboard in an encouraging sign. No. 5 Girvin’s Princess (8-5, morning-line favorite) is fresh off a well-rated maiden victory but must answer the class question at a much lower price than the top choice. No. 4 Lady Prospect (9-5) also climbs the class ladder after conquering maidens, but that was last week over this course for red-hot Jamie Ness, 8: 3-1-2, with a fairly low speed figure – mixed signals.
How I’d bet it, based on a $100 budget: $4 exacta box 1/5, $4 exacta 1,5/4, $4 win 1
Race 4
No. 1 Elissa Joe (7-5, morning-line favorite) is 0-for-10 but has never been this low, and prior dirt speed figures earned vs. much tougher make her the one to beat. No. 11 Thirsty Date (6-1) was a decent third vs. $50k claimers at Los Al on first asking just under a year ago, then ran at Golden Gate two weeks later for $8k and completely flopped. Unseen since and adding Lasix, this one is a total wildcard and hard to leave out. No. 5 Luna Amarilla (6-1) tries a new low and sheds blinkers – consider.
How I’d bet it: $10 exacta 1/5,11, $2 exacta 11/1
Race 5
No. 4 Can’t Complain (9-5, morning-line favorite) ran twice at this level at Monmouth this year and recorded a win and a runner-up, with the latter occurring with a three-wide trip on both turns behind a next-out winner. Off a decent third vs. classier at Delaware followed by a solid tune-up work, color Can’t Complain as the likeliest winner of the afternoon. No. 1 Ballyhooly (6-1) has hit the board in four straight vs. sprinters. Distance is the question, but she runs like she wants more ground. No. 3 Unwhirled (10-1) fits with these based on recent speed figures.
How I’d bet it: $10 exacta 4/1,3
Race 8
No. 3 Heston (5-1) is fresh off a blowout win vs. slightly lesser at Belterra, where he hit the board in four straight. His most recent breeze here was encouraging, and it seems the longer distance will suit him more than others in this heat. No. 6 Shastree (3-1, morning-line favorite) is not the most consistent runner in this bunch, but his two-back effort at Gulfstream is good enough to beat these. No. 5 Fabricator (6-1) was ambitiously placed at Keeneland when last seen but put together solid form at Hawthorne prior to that. However, seven furlongs may not be up his alley.
How I’d bet it: $5 exacta 3/5,6, $4 exacta 6/3,5
Race 9
No. 7 Fly Nightly (5-1) has won four in a row vs. similar foes, all at Hawthorne, and boasts a 12: 3-3-3 record at Tampa – impossible to ignore. No. 6 Artemus Bridge (6-1) has two wins and a third in his last three tries between eight and nine furlongs – will be rolling late with plenty of pace to chase. No. 8 Justintimeforwine (9-2)could find himself in a pace duel but has won setting fast fractions before, as in his last two at Monmouth.
How I’d bet it: $2 exacta box 6/7/8, $2 exacta 6,7/6,7,8
Robert Criscola is a free-lance handicapper based in New York.