Wednesday wagers: Back El Buffalo in debut at Tampa Bay

Here are my five favorite races from Tampa Bay Downs this Wednesday afternoon.

Best bet: Wicked Saucy (Race 1)

Best value bet: El Buffalo (race 4)

Race 1

No. 2 Wicked Saucy (3-1) has had her fair share of chances (0-for-11 lifetime), but if she runs back to her most recent effort, she should best this bunch. She shows an encouraging tune-up work for this too. No. 3 Ginger Sparkle (5-2, morning-line favorite) split the field against slightly tougher when last seen but may not care for the added distance here. No. 5 Angelic Storm (5-1) gets class relief after tackling tougher at Gulfstream but might need a race off a July layoff.

How I’d bet it (based on a $100 budget): $10 exacta 2/3,5

Race 2

No. 1 Cuz (3-1) has effectively wasted three straight starts, trying turf before facing tougher, once even turning back to a sprint. But he’s finally back at the level and (approximate) distance in which he won a heat with a sharp speed figure earlier in the meet. Samy Camacho (26 percent) stays aboard. No. 2 Exacting (5-2, morning-line favorite) has won two of his last three starts against slightly weaker, consider. No. 5 War Cross (7-2) was gaining late on Exacting last time out but loses Manny Jimenez (12 percent) to No. 6 Odds On (3-1).

How I’d bet it: $7 exacta 1/2,5, $4 exacta 2/1, $2 exacta 2/5

Race 4

No. 8 El Buffalo (9-2) – ostensibly named after owner and MLB catcher Wilson Ramos – didn’t cost much at auction ($3k) but could outrun that price here. He flashes a couple of decent morning works and lures Camacho, who’s won each of his last three races for trainer Antonio Machado (17 percent with debut turf runners). No. 9 Dad’s On a Roll (8-1) could try to steal a potentially paceless race up front. No. 4 Core Factor (5-2, morning-line favorite) settled for third as the favorite when last seen at this level – far from imposing, but logical to include.

How I’d bet it: $2 exacta box 4/8/9, $8 win 8

Race 6

No. 3 Aunt Nadine (5-2, morning-line favorite) received a speed figure in her most recent dirt try at Gulfstream that would blow these out of the water. Her frequent efforts on synthetic at the Hallandale Beach oval are perplexing, but she gets on what appears to be her preferred surface for trainer Victor Barboza (33 percent). No. 6 Liking It Twisted (3-1) has been shorter than 3-1 in five straight starts but has put things together against softer with three wins in a four-start span. She tries slightly tougher going first off the claim for Jon Arnett (23 percent). No. 7 Let’s Be Honest (7-2) is the stablemate of the top choice, and Barboza wins at 37 percent going first off the claim. This daughter of He’s Had Enough could hit the ticket even on the class hike.

How I’d bet it: $10 exacta 3/6,7

Race 9

No. 4 Discreet Magic (8-5, morning-line favorite) makes sense in the finale following a solid runner-up effort in his first try on turf. No. 5 G. T. Oh (9-2) was well-beaten by the top choice last time out but was a strong second two-back and lures Pablo Morales (19 percent). No. 8 Siciliano (4-1) has picked up minor awards in three straight at this level, tough to toss.

How I’d bet it: $10 exacta 4/5,8

Robert Criscola is a free-lance handicapper based in New York.