Wednesday wagers: Bombdiggity can lower the boom at Keeneland

The final Wednesday card of the Keeneland fall meet features eight races, and I have picks for five of them. Without further ado, let’s dig into my favorite bets on the program.

Best Bet: Storm Haven (Race 3)

Best Value Bet: Bombdiggity (Race 6)

Race 2

No. 4 Moon Magic Chrissy (5-2, morning-line favorite) is the most experienced juvenile in this field, and should be aided by both the drop in class and the cutback to a sprint. Luis Saez takes over in the irons. No. 3 Lily’s Creed (7-2) was a solid second in her initial try for a tag – consider. No. 7 Bonanza Grade (9-2) faded after showing good early speed on debut against tougher. She’s a player, but the rapid dropdown to the $30,000 level after being bought for $75,000 raises an eyebrow.

How I’d bet it (based on a $100 budget): $7 exacta box 3/4, $3 exacta 3,4/7.

Race 3

No. 6 Storm Haven (7-2) raced wide on debut but finished with interest against similar foes at Churchill last month. The subsequent works are strong, and trainer Dallas Stewart adds blinkers, so don’t be shocked if Storm Haven wires this group. No. 2 Argumental (5-2, morning-line favorite) hasn’t been out since March, but the prior speed figures against like horses stamp her as a contender. She’s also working bullets for her return to the races for Mike Maker. No. 5 Awesome Ally Vee (4-1) was second against maiden claimers at Saratoga when last seen and may appreciate the turnback.

How I’d bet it: $8 win 6, $4 exacta box 2/6, $2 exacta 6/2,5.

Race 4

No. 4 Cathedral Beach (4-1) won twice over the summer at Saratoga before settling for second against tougher at Aqueduct when last seen. He goes first time out for Saffie Joseph Jr., who wins at 23% with new acquisitions. No. 3 Overtaxed (5-2, morning-line favorite) gets needed class relief here – a repeat of his June 11 victory at Churchill would make him imposing. No. 1 Boise (8-1) could go off at generous odds shipping in from Golden Gate with no prior dirt form, but he got over the Keeneland course well enough in the mornings.

How I’d bet it: $8 exacta box 3/4, $2 win 1, $1 exacta 3,4/1.

Race 6

No. 2 Bombdiggity (9-2) appears to be getting overlooked, at least from the morning-line oddsmaker. Her impressive maiden score over Ride the Plan, coupled with two strong efforts at Churchill, make this speed merchant and Steve Asmussen trainee a strong win candidate. Toss her lone effort at Keeneland, a fifth following a dreadful start. No. 4 Ride the Plan (3-1) lost to the top choice on debut, but has improved in the speed figure department since then. She’s never missed the exacta in four dirt tries. No. 7 Magic Quest (6-1) may have needed her last off the bench – will try not to get used up early dueling with Bombdiggity.

How I’d bet it: $20 win 2.

Race 8

No. 3 Master Game (5-2, morning-line favorite) showed promise in one start last year before hitting the sidelines, then was no match for some strong maiden foes at Churchill earlier this 

season. But the speed figures he earned in those heats would bowl over this maiden claiming group. The son of Mastery drilled a bullet for this, and lures Tyler Gaffalione. No. 11 Apollo Rising (7-2) was a well-rated third in his career unveiling at Churchill against similar company, logical alternative. No. 10 Point of an Affair (5-1) intrigues as a firster with decent works, but trainer Thomas Drury Jr. is 0-for-21 when debuting runners for a tag.

How I’d bet it: $10 exacta 3/11, $4 exacta 3/10, $4 exacta 11/3, $2 exacta 11/10.

Robert Criscola is a free-lance handicapper based in New York.