Wednesday wagers: Asymmetric lines up to win at Saratoga
Week 5 of the 2023 Saratoga meet begins with a nine-race program, after the cancellation of a steeplechase event, highlighted by the Johnstone Mile Handicap for state-bred fillies and mares. Here are my selections for five of the afternoon’s races at the Spa.
Best bet: Asymmetric (race 7)
Best value bet: Stormy Disco (race 3)
Race 3
No. 6 Stormy Disco (8-1) is by noted turf sprinter Disco Partner and is working forwardly for her debut. Trainer Michael Dini saw fit to ship this one up here from Monmouth. No. 5 Lonchura (6-1) must be respected off her most recent runner-up effort, which was rated highly. No. 7 Red Burgundy (9-2) could get trainer Horacio De Paz (0-for-16) off the schneid if she runs to her recent works. This race was moved off the turf.
How I’d bet it: $2 exacta box 6/7/3
Race 5
No. 9 Crazy Cami (7-2) was a respectable third on debut for a sire in Audible who gets only 5 percent first-out winners. With blinkers added and a bullet drill ahead of this, she can improve enough to get the job done. No. 3 Zadorsky (5-2) took a backward step from start No. 1 to start No. 2, likely because of racing against the grain at a rail-biased Ellis Park. But Jose Lezcano can be counted on to put this horse in the right spot. No. 1 Lady Prospect (8-1) draws the dreaded rail post for her debut, but the works are promising and Luis Saez (17 percent) sees fit to climb aboard.
How I’d bet it: $7 exacta box 3/9, $3 exacta 3,9/1
Race 7
No. 4 Asymmetric (2-1, morning-line favorite) takes what could be seen as a suspicious class drop, but it might just be Chad Brown (18 wins) trying to wrest control of the Saratoga trainer standings from Linda Rice (also 18 wins). Even if this horse regresses, he still should triumph considering his sizable edge in the speed figure department. No. 8 Morning Cup (9-2) should improve off the class drop for Rice. No. 7 Hatch (10-1) was competitive at the claiming level on dirt earlier this year.
How I’d bet it: $15 exacta 4/8, $5 exacta 4/7
Race 9
No. 2 Sunset Louise (5-2, morning-line favorite) has posted three facile gate-to-wire wins in a row and is 2-for-2 lifetime over this course. She and Luis Saez (20 wins) are strictly the ones to beat from a speed figure perspective. No. 4 Bustin Bay (6-1) could sit the ideal stalking trip and should be sharp scaling back a bit off two straight victories. No. 5 Betsy Blue (3-1) would benefit from a pace duel, but the stretchout could dull her closing kick.
How I’d bet it: $7 exacta 2/4, $3 exacta 2,4/5
Race 10
No. 1 Morethanafeeling has good dirt form at the NYRA circuit to run back to, 3: 0-0-2 on fast dirt, and lures Tyler Gaffalione, 16 percent. No. 15 Squid Gamer can run to his second career start, which would be good enough to win this, with a ground-saving trip. No. 14 Refuah is 0-for-16 lifetime but has hit the board 12 times, with five exacta finishes in six route tries.
How I’d bet it: $8 exacta box 1/15, and $2 exacta 1,5/14
Robert Criscola is a free-lance handicapper based in New York.