Wednesday wagers: Arrow Speed flies to winner’s circle at Tampa

There’s a solid nine-race card on tap at Tampa Bay Downs this Wednesday, and hopefully they’ll be able to get every event in before afternoon rain arrives. Here’s my analysis for my five favorite races plus wagering advice.

Best bet: Arrow Speed (race 2)

Best value bet: Mission Key (race 8)

Race 2

No. 3 Arrow Speed (3-1) simply doesn’t have much to beat in race favorites No. 1 Atrocious (8-5, morning-line favorite) and No. 4 Frizzante (2-1). Adding both Lasix and blinkers should aid this son of Tapit, and his most recent tune-up work was encouraging. Frizzante was well-beaten in a maiden claiming event when last seen but still boasts three in-the-money finishes in six career starts and gets blinkers on too. Atrocious cost $500k at auction but did not run to that price tag in a fifth-place effort on debut.

How I’d bet it (based on a $100 budget): $12 exacta 3/1,4

Race 3

No. 7 Granted Success (5-2, morning-line favorite) takes another step down the class ladder and gets what should be a valuable cutback in distance – the one to beat off his last-out speed figure. No. 8 Final Verdict (9-2) loses Samy Camacho (20 percent) but gets Pablo Morales (18 percent) aboard as he tries for his sixth straight on-the-board result and third consecutive victory. No. 1 Joyful Ghost (5-1) enters riding a six-race in-the-money streak, albeit vs. slightly weaker – consider.

How I’d bet it: $2 exacta box 1/7/8, $3 exacta 7/1,8

Race 4

No. 8 Above the Sky (5-1) gets a tepid nod after showing decent speed on debut before tiring vs. tougher. She sheds weight switching to apprentice Jon Rivera today. No. 5 Rock Me Amadeus (4-1) shows some solid A.M. works ahead of her unveiling at this modest level, and sire Sky Mesa wins with 12 percent of debut runners. No. 1 Alma Pura (7-2) ran a race capable of crushing these two-back before bouncing badly when last seen – mixed signals.

How I’d bet it: $2 exacta box 1/5/8, $3 exacta box 5/8

Race 6

No. 7 Barbsdreamcometrue (6-1) was much too good for maiden claimers at first asking. This is a step up, but she can improve off an already-solid speed figure and score at solid odds. No. 6 Corinth (3-1) is tough to trust on top at 1-for-11 but must be respected off her third-place run in the Gasparilla Stakes and runner-up effort at this level when last seen. No. 4 Obstreperous (5-1) has the speed figures to stay on stubbornly for a share despite the hike up the class ladder.

How I’d bet it: $2 exacta box 4/6/7, $4 win 7

Race 8

No. 2 Mission Key (5-1) has been away since a lackluster September attempt on turf, but he has the back class to compete on dirt with wins in two route races at Delaware just last summer – upset threat. No. 4 Street Glide (2-1, morning-line favorite) takes a slight step up off a well-rated second-place result – logical alternative despite Daniel Centeno (18 percent) jumping off and Samuel Marin (12 percent) taking over. No. 6 Hercules (3-1) hasn’t missed the exacta in four in a row but will be tested for class here.

How I’d bet it: $2 exacta box 2/4/6, $2 exacta key box 2/4,6, $4 win 2

Robert Criscola is a free-lance handicapper based in New York.