Wednesday wagers: Picks for 5 races on the Keeneland card
The final Wednesday card of the Keeneland fall meet is upon us, and I have picks for five of the day’s eight events.
Best bet: Touchy (race 8)
Best value bet: Apollo Rising (race 3)
Race 2
No. 5 Tegwar (8-1) was in much too tough last time out but has shown decent ability vs. cheaper foes in the past. Look for her late. No. 7 Arditamente (15-1) is modestly bred but also is modestly placed at first asking, and recent works are respectable. You could do much worse at this price. No. 8 Mom’s Cheesecake (15-1) split the field in a similar spot when last seen, and blinkers added could help.
How I’d bet it, based on a $100 budget: $6 win 5, $1 exacta box 5/7/8
Race 3
No. 7 Apollo Rising (8-1) brings remarkably consistent form into this one, and although he needed a bit of class relief to get his picture taken last time out, this tricky 1 3/16th-mile distance could even the odds for him just enough. No. 1 Gilded Craken (5-2, morning-line favorite) won like a good thing last time out and should be the controlling speed, but the distance is the question mark. No. 6 Curlin’s Gesture (7-2) will be rolling late and must be respected on speed figures.
How I’d bet it: $12 win 7, $2 exacta key box 7/1,6
Race 5
No. 4 My Brazilian Girl (4-1) was ambitiously placed in the Tepin Stakes three back but might have posted a huge upset with a clean trip. Then she was narrowly denied a maiden diploma at Ellis Park before flopping in a return to dirt. Lasix is added as she gets back to her preferred surface. No. 10 Birdwatching (6-5, morning-line favorite) has had two runner-up finishes with fairly smooth journeys each time. I would like her more if she didn’t have yet another layoff line heading into this. No. 8 Streetwhereyoulive (15-1) perked up in her lone turf try at Horseshoe Indy. Use underneath. No. 6 One Front War (6-1) lures Luis Saez after racing against the grain at Kentucky Downs in her first turf try.
How I’d bet it: $10 exacta 4/10, $4 exacta 4/6,8, $4 exacta 10/4
Race 6
No. 9 Audacious (6-1) steps up in class but lures Luis Saez for Todd Pletcher. She aced the route test at Laurel when last seen and is lightly raced, offering hope for improvement that could put her over the top. No. 8 Just Be Quiet (15-1) is a cut below these figure-wise, but her 6: 2-2-1 record on fast dirt with two stakes placings is respectable. No. 7 Everland (8-1) obviously was not a match for Thorpedo Anna in the Grade 1 Cotillion but was a narrowly beaten third with a wide trip two back vs. similar.
How I’d bet it: $10 win/place 9
Race 8
No. 4 Touchy (8-5, morning-line favorite) was ambitiously placed in back-to-back stakes to kick off his career, but a confidence booster is clearly needed now. Wesley Ward has this son of Nyquist working extremely well for this. No. 3 Royal Coach (20-1) looks live despite the morning-line odds while boasting solid five-furlong works for Bret Calhoun, who wins at a 14 percent clip with firsters. No. 8 Hitchcock did well to make up ground and be third at first asking, so improvement is expected. No. 6 Mo Quality (12-1) shows two bullet works and lures Jose Ortiz.
How I’d bet it: $8 exacta 4/3,6,8, $2 win 3
Robert Criscola is a free-lance handicapper based in New York.