Wednesday Wagers: Best bet shows up fast at Churchill
There’s a nine-race card at Churchill Downs on Wednesday, and I’ve got wagering advice for five of these events.
Race 1
No. 4 Palmetto Fury (9-5) is my prediction to be post-time favorite and is my best bet of the day. This daughter of Mitole was dangled for $25,000 by Saffie Joseph Jr. two back, but there were no takers before she romped to a 5 1/2-length score. Just over two months later there would be no second chances for would-be claimers as she took a $50,000 starter allowance at Saratoga. Entering in at the $30,000 starter-allowance level is a shrewd move, and Tyler Gaffalione at 22 percent sees fit to ride once more. No. 2 Little Sister Sue (4-1) is just 2-for-23 lifetime but has completed the exacta in three straight starts, including her last try at this level. No. 1 Lil Gin N Class (8-5), the morning-line favorite, has done well vs. state-breds at Horseshoe Indy, but I’m skeptical that form will translate into anything more than a runner-up result. Jockey Édgar Morales is also in a 1-for-29 funk at the meet.
How I’d bet it (based on a $100 budget): $10 exacta 4/1,2.
Race 2
No. 1 Mizmalice (4-1) was decent on debut, splitting the field in a turf race at Ellis. There’s enough dirt pedigree being by McKinzie out of a Palace Malice mare to suggest this one will handle the surface switch. No. 3 Spunderella (7-2) was off slowly and ended up fading late vs. tougher at Ellis at first asking. The class drop helps, and the follow-up works have been encouraging. No. 4 Kim Possible (8-1) has the breeding to go long being by Improbable out of a Union Rags mare, and she has trained well ahead of her initial run.
How I’d bet it: $2 exacta box 1/3/4, $4 exacta 1/3,4.
Race 3
No. 1 Princess Is Olivia (7-2), the morning-line favorite, has been a popular item at the claim box with four straight claims. It could be five straight today as she returns to the $16,000 level, at which she won at Del Mar two back. No. 2 Sherbet Fountain (9-2) was beaten by a head by No. 3 Miss Tappy Tone (4-1) when they met at Churchill Downs on July 1 but gets a tepid nod for second nonetheless based on her more consistent form. I’m drawing a line through the last race for each of these fillies vs. significantly tougher competition.
How I’d bet it: $10 exacta 1/2,3.
Race 6
No. 8 Despo’s Dream (5-2), the morning-line favorite, looks tough while trying a new low based on speed figures. Gaffalione gets a leg up for Joe Sharp, who is 4-for-10 to start the meet. No. 4 Miss Escapade (8-1) and No. 5 Tempting Lady (4-1) were noses apart in a similar spot last time out. The slight edge goes to Miss Escapade at a better price with José Ortiz climbing aboard.
How I’d bet it: $2 exacta box 4/5/8, $2 exacta key box 8/4,5.
Race 8
No. 2 Mt. Masada (12-1) hasn’t raced since March, but her maiden win was impressive, and so was her recent five-furlong tune-up work. Ortiz jumps on for Tom Amoss, who is 19 percent with runners coming off layoffs of at least 90 days. No. 11 Wailua (7-2), the morning-line favorite, faded in an allowance try at Saratoga but still ran a race capable of beating these. The cutback in distance should help. No. 3 Girls Weekend (4-1) lures Luis Sáez off a second-place finish in a similar race at the Spa.
How I’d bet it: $2 exacta box 2/3/11, $4 win/place 2.
Best bet: Palmetto Fury, race 1.
Best value bet: Mt. Masada, race 8.