Wednesday Wagers: 5 top plays for Churchill
Churchill Downs has added Wednesday racing to its calendar for the rest of June, beginning with this nine-race program. Here are my Top 5 plays for this intriguing card.
Best Bet: Horse Greedy (Race 2)
Best Value Bet: York Tavern (Race 7)
Race 2
No. 5 Horse Greedy (8-5, morning-line favorite) goes second off the claim for Steve Asmussen, who fires at 29 percent with this angle. He was a game runner-up against similar at Oaklawn when last seen, and lures meet-leading rider Tyler Gaffalione. No. 4 My Man Flintstone (9-5) tries a new low as a first-time gelding for Ken McPeek, should hold on for a share. No. 1 Drewzano (6-1) and No. 2 The Boss Factor (6-1) are threats to break up the chalk exacta. The former was a decent third at this class level and course last time out, while the latter drops in class and scales back in distance.
How I’d bet it (based on $100 budget): $10 exacta 5/4, $5 exacta 5/1,2
Race 5
No. 4 Emerald Express (2-1) and No. 3 Gagetown (8-5, morning-line favorite) are tough to split in this heat, but the tepid nod goes to the former with the recency edge. A repeat of Emerald Express’ last-out speed figure earned against similar foes should do the trick. Ricardo Santana Jr. sees fit to climb aboard for Mike Maker. Gagetown was primarily a router for Brad Cox last year but has had some success sprinting, so perhaps this is not a prep for a subsequent start. No. 1 Belfast Boy (4-1) steps up slightly off a convincing win over this course; logical alternative.
How I’d bet it: $10 exacta box 3/4
Race 7
No. 1 York Tavern (12-1) intrigues in his first career start for trainer Cherie DeVaux, who fires at 15 percent with debut runners. The son of Runhappy is by a Street Sense mare who has produced two winners from two starters, and he flashes some sharp morning breezes. No. 4 Afjan (5-2, morning-line favorite) exits the Todd Pletcher barn but moves over to Maker, who wins at 13 percent with new acquisitions. The cutback in distance and switch to Gaffalione could land Afjan in the winner’s circle. No. 2 General Strike (7-2) has a pair of in-the-money finishes over this course to run back to from his 2-year-old season.
How I’d bet it: $8 win 1, $3 exacta box 1/4, $1 exacta box 1/2/4
Race 8
Pace figures to make the race in this lone turf event on the Wednesday card. If No. 8 Dreamful (8-5, morning-line favorite) – who has settled for minor placings six straight times – is left unchecked up front, she figures to win as the favorite, as she boasts some of the best speed figures in the field. No. 5 Two Sixtyone (7-2) appears the most likely upsetter, taking a needed drop in class while scaling back a furlong and adding blinkers. She figures to be the main rival to the top choice up front from a pace perspective. The chess match between Gaffalione and Mitchell Murrill will go a long way in determining the outcome. No. 4 Viburnum (5-2) needs a fast tempo to close into under Adam Beschizza as she tries for her second win in what’s already her 15th career start.
How I’d bet it: $5 exacta box 5/8, $3 exacta 5,8/4, $2 exacta 4/5,8
Race 9
No. 11 Bear Alley (4-1, morning-line favorite) should continue his love affair with the Churchill dirt, as he boasts a 6: 4-1-0 record here. That includes his runaway score over this strip two weeks ago. Bear Alley was claimed out of that race from Chris Hartman (25 percent trainer), but lands in the Norm Casse barn, and he wins with 20 percent of his first-off-the-claim runners. No. 4 Mobster Gun (9-2) beat $50,000 starter allowance foes when last seen here, and now drops in with $10,000 starter allowance company, contender. No. 6 Home Run Trick (6-1) was claimed away from Karl Broberg (21 percent) by Terry Brennan (0-for-19 in 2022), but lures Gaffalione and threatens to wire the field. No. 12 Indian Gulch (10-1) beat a pair of these at Keeneland before settling for third in the demanding “Trail’s End” at Oaklawn.
How I’d bet it: $8 exacta 11/4, $6 exacta 11/6,12
Robert Criscola is a free-lance handicapper based in New York.