Watch: Fair-odds analysis of John A. Nerud, Stephen Foster

Two marquee matchups will play out in a pair of Grade 2 stakes races on Saturday, and through the vagaries of the pari-mutuel system, the less likely winner among my two picks is actually the better bet.

The John Nerud Stakes (G2) at Belmont Park features Life Is Good and Speaker's Corner, and while I have the former as one of the most likely winners on the day and more than twice as likely as his chief adversary, I'm dubious that we'll actually get fair value on the multiple Grade 1 winner given his 1-2 morning line.

The Stephen Foster Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs is more contentious, but my most likely winner – Olympiad – is the second choice on the morning line, and I think he will go off higher than my fair odds thanks to the presence of Mandaloun (and to a lesser extent, Americanrevolution).

Sara Elbadwi and I discuss both these races and the opportunities the wagering might present in the video below.