Dickey: Playing or passing on Breeders' Cup Head2Head props
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Eclipse Sportswire
Back for a second straight year, the Breeders’ Cup wagering menu includes "Head2Head" wagers in a number of races where there are two betting interests pitted against one another. With a $10 minimum bet and a 10% takeout rate, there may be a few opportunities to go against the probable majority opinion and profit nicely.
Six races feature Head2Head betting across Friday and Saturday at Santa Anita Park, and the rules are simple: There are two betting interests for the designated races that may include multiple horses within one interest. Winner takes all.
Five of the Head2Head propositions pair of groups of horses, such as the USA vs. Europe, or east vs. west. In the Breeders' Cup Classic, we get a true horse vs. horse matchup.
Here are my opinions on each Head2Head race and how strong the feeling is in playing them.
Juvenile Turf Sprint: Pass
U.S. horses (interest 1): Chimney Rock, Another Miracle, Encoder, Kimari, Four Wheel Drive, Cambria, Bulletproof One (AE), Fore Left (AE), Karak (AE)
European horses (interest 2): Band Practice, Dream Shot, Alligator Alley, Dr Simpson, A’Ali, King Neptune, Air Force Jet (AE)
The first Head2Head wager of the Breeders’ Cup weekend should be heavily slanted toward the U.S. horses. Four Wheel Drive and Kimari are top-tier contenders in the Juvenile Turf Sprint, and both are American-trained. Cambria is another who can make a case, and I like Another Miracle at a price as a longshot.
When looking at the Europeans, A’Ali is formidable. Band Practice may very well out-run her 12-1 morning line odds. But that’s it for the Europeans. This race will more than likely be won by an American horse for a second straight year, and the betting here will probably reflect that. The value would be in taking the other side, but I can’t part with any of my wagering dollars this early in the Breeders’ Cup races on that hope. I'll pass.
Juvenile Fillies Turf: Pass
U.S. horses (interest 1): Croughavouke, Abscond, Crystalle, Fair Maiden, Sharing, Sweet Melania, Selflessly
European horses (interest 2): Living In The Past, Shadn, Daahyeh, Unforgetable, Tango, Albigna, Etoile
Unfortunately for me, I think this wager will be one-sided in favor of the Europeans. My top choices in the Juvenile Fillies Turf are, accordingly, all Europeans: Albigna, Shadn, and Daahyeh. My top choice among the U.S. fillies is Sharing, and I can make a case (albeit a weak one) for Fair Maiden. But I feel my lean in this race will be shared by the vast majority of Head2Head bettors here.
It’s going to be a very small return betting the Europeans in this wager, and for that reason I’m likely to pass again despite the strong opinion.
Juvenile: Play
East Coast (interest 1): Dennis’ Moment, Shoplifted, Scabbard
West Coast (interest 2): Wrecking Crew, Storm the Court, Eight Rings, Anneau d’Or, Full Flat
This can more so be summed up as Dennis’ Moment vs. Eight Rings.
This one may be worth a wager, and it’s obviously dependent on your preference between the two. I’ll take the west coast and Eight Rings, as I think I’ll get a better price on a horse with the advantage of a win at Santa Anita.
The track will be deep, plus Eight Rings has raced at Santa Anita and worked over the surface in his last seven published breezes. Dennis’ Moment has had a chance to train at Santa Anita, but I’ll take my chances at higher odds with a colt that’s proven on race day.
Filly & Mare Turf: Pass
U.S. horses (interest 1): Sistercharlie, Mirth, Thais, Vasilika, Mrs. Sippy
European horses (interest 2): Iridessa, Fleeting, Billesdon Brook, Castle Lady, Villa Marina, Just Wonderful, Fanny Logan
This one will be heavily slanted towards the U.S. horses as Sistercharlie will be a prohibitive favorite. For that reason, if I were to bet this wager -- and I won’t -- I would take my shot with the European contingent, as that’s the side that will have the better value.
Bu the horse in the race that I think can defeat Sistercharlie is a fellow American trainee in Vasilika. Of the Europeans, Fleeting is the only one I think is capable of pulling the upset.
Mile: Play
U.S. horses (interest 1): Lucullan, True Valour, Got Stormy, Bolo, El Tormenta, Uni, Bowies Hero, Caribou Club (AE), Next Shares (AE)
European horses (interest 2): Suedois, Space Traveller, Trais Fluors, Circus Maximus, Without Parole, Lord Glitters, Hey Gaman
This is the Head2Head wagering opportunity that I think will be most evenly matched. It could be close to a 50-50 proposition, as the Mile looks to be a wide-open race, and each interest here has a few horses with legitimate chances to win.
I’m personally a bit torn here, as I really like a European longshot in Hey Gaman, and I feel Circus Maximus has a nice chance to win the race.
But I’ll be taking the American contingent with my wager, as I feel Got Stormy is the top contender, Uni has a legitimate chance to beat the boys, and my top longshot for the weekend is True Valour.
I’m hoping that enough bettors like Aidan O'Brien-trained Circus Maximus to make this close to a 50-50 shot. If it’s not totally skewed toward the U.S. horses, I’ll probably make a decent-sized wager on that side.
Classic: Pass
Code of Honor (interest 1) vs McKinzie (interest 2)
In the only Breeders’ Cup Head2Head betting option that is a true head to head, I am assuming that this will be slanted toward McKinzie. The allure of betting McKinzie with this wager is that he doesn’t have to win the race. He just has to beat Code of Honor.
I'd expect people who play this HeadHead wager will think they will get a little worse price than a win bet on McKinzie but only have to beat one rival. For that reason, I would take the improving 3-year-old Code of Honor in this wager, as that represents the only value. But I'll pass and look for a better price somewhere else in the Classic.
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