Vulnerable favorites? How to play the Louisiana Derby undercard
A trio of graded stakes run on Saturday's Louisiana Derby (G2) undercard, and each features a well-defined favorite. So, should you play against, or try to capitalize expecting a win from the top choice? Here are a few thoughts...
Favorite: #6 Silver Dust (7-2)
Credentials: Sharp gelding owns running style versatility, but I am concerned about his 0-for-2 record at this distance, and chasing strong fractions might hurt his stretch run.
Vulnerable favorite: Yes.
How to bet it: One way to make money in this race is to key #2 Lone Sailor (9-2) underneath. He gets pace to chase, likes the mile and an eighth distance, and enjoys hitting the board. #3 Souper Tapit (6-1), #4 Noble Indy (15-1), #6 Silver Dust (7-2), #8 Mr. Buff (6-1), #10 Copper Bullet (4-1) and #11 Core Beliefs (6-1) are all capable of making an impact in a wide open race.
The Plays:
Trifecta 3-4-6-8-10-11/2/3-4-6-8-10-11
Trifecta 3-4-6-8-10-11/3-4-6-8-10-11/2
Favorite: #7 Bricks and Mortar (2-1)
Credentials: Smartly scored as my top choice in the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) on Jan. 26. He is 6-for-8 overall for Chad Brown and might be classier than this group.
Vulnerable favorite: No.
How to bet it: #7 Bricks and Mortar (2-1) looks tough as the chalk, and second choice #3 Synchrony (3-1) is sharp and loves Fair Grounds. I will try to split those two in the exacta with #2 Divisidero (5-1) and rebound candidate #5 First Premio (8-1). The latter should offer the most value and has the best chance to spice up the exotics.
The Plays:
Exacta 3-7/2-5
Trifecta Key 7/2-3-5
Favorite: #2 Serengeti Empress (6-5)
Credentials: Sharp front runner probably won’t look back if she is all alone up front in the early going, and that could easily happen in a race without much pace.
Vulnerable favorite: No.
How to bet it: #2 Serengeti Empress (6-5) figures to wire the field if she shakes loose early. Southern California shipper #7 Slewgoodtobetrue (8-1) won both of her route starts and might be able to stalk the pace, completing the exacta under Florent Geroux. #8 Liora (5-1) and #6 Eres Tu (6-1) finished second and third in the Rachel Alexandra (G2). The former adds blinkers and should be forwardly placed.
The Plays:
Exacta 2-7
Trifecta Key 2/6-7-8