Fair odds: Up-and-comer can beat class in Ky. Oaks prep

Potential starting points for any handicapper looking at a race for the first time might be to determine who is the speed and who is the class. I would add pace as the third question.

When it comes to the Virginia Oaks, Saturday's points prep at Colonial Downs for the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks, the answers are pretty clear. Gowells Delight is the class off her runner-up finish behind Good Cheer in the Rachel Alexandra (G2), and Fondly is the speed after earning a good speed figure in her career debut a month ago at Tampa Bay Downs.

So what wins out? I always lean toward speed over class, and in this case I expect to get a better price on Fondly. That makes her the choice.

Her maiden win was a good one as she needed to find room after a tight trip from the rail and drew off by four lengths. That was a seven-furlong race, and now Fondly stretches out to 1 1/16 miles. But she maintains the one turn, which I see as beneficial for her stakes debut and second career start. Trainer Graham Motion getting to leg up Irad Ortiz Jr. doesn't hurt either.

You'll Be Back would be my second choice. I definitely prefer her to Gowells Delight, as I expect You'll Be Back to show more speed in this one-turn route. The only other filly to show her kind of early speed is Icona Mama, and she has not run as well when needing to stay late.

Ken McPeek and Tom Amoss both train a second filly in this race, with Anonima joining Gowells Delight and Low Key joining You'll Be Back. Anonima was marooned last out in the Honeybee (G3) and can improve off that. Low Key has had wide voyages throughout her career and might appreciate the inside draw in the one-turn route.

No one is impossible here. I've mentioned six of the eight entrants so far, with Early On and Girl Math still in the balance. The former ran the best race of her career last out when stretching to this distance. The latter is consistent but needs to make a step forward to contend. The price might be right for that.

Wagering-wise, I'd give a slight lean toward Fondly in multi-race wagers with You'll Be Back next up. Since I think Getaway Car is 50 percent to win the Virginia Derby, it is worth playing some tickets that use all but Gowells Delight with other long shots in races 6, 7 and 10.