Virginia Derby guide: Baffert's Buetane leads a wide-open field
The 2026 Kentucky Derby is just 49 days away, and starting with Saturday's 1 1/8-mile Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs, there are only nine more points preps for the top 3-year-olds to earn their way into the starting gate. The Virginia Derby offers 50-25-15-10-5 points to the first five finishers, practically guaranteeing the winner a spot, but the runners-up could still have time to clinch their own piece of the 20-horse Kentucky Derby starting gate.
This is only the second year for the Virginia Derby as a Kentucky Derby points prep, as the race was originally on turf and scheduled later in the summer. An ownership change put the track under Churchill Downs' ownership and so a Derby prep was created.
Last year's winner, American Promise, was the final Kentucky Derby starter for legendary trainer D. Wayne Lukas. The son of Justify ran a career-best race at Colonial and set a new track record for the distance. He finished 16th at Churchill Downs and eighth in the Preakness. There's potential for this to develop into a major prep with its distance and place on the calendar.
A field of 10 has drawn in for the race this year, led by Bob Baffert's Buetane. Buetane was last seen finishing third in the Southwest. The son of Tiz the Law was a $1.5 million 2-year-old in-training purchase for Zedan Stables in 2025. He broke his maiden first out at Del Mar last August and then shipped to Saratoga where he finished second to Ted Noffey in the Hopeful. He was not seen again until January, when he finished second in the San Vicente to So Happy. His Southwest performance at 1 1/16 miles – his first route race – left something to be desired, however. If he's Derby-worthy he should handle this field... but they won't let him off easy.
The only stakes winner in this race is Incredibolt for trainer Riley Mott. Incredibolt won the Street Sense stakes last October at Churchill and then took a long break. He returned in the Holy Bull, but it was a head-scratching performance despite him training well ahead of the race. Maybe he didn't like the surface? If he runs back to his fall form, watch out.
Todd Pletcher sends two here off his deep bench of 3-year-olds, Grittiness and Epic Desire. Epic Desire, a son of Uncle Mo, finished fifth in the Sam F. Davis after breaking his maiden in January in his fifth career start. Pletcher's other entry, Grittiness, was last seen finishing second in the Withers. The son of Curlin had finished fifth in the Remsen in December, but his best career finish so far is second - he is still a maiden. Both of these colts look like they want more distance, and they will get it here.
Take a look at all 10 entrants here.
The Virginia Derby is race 9, post time 5:10 p.m. EDT. It will be broadcast on FanDuel TV as part of its regular coverage of Colonial Downs.
Free past performances for this weekend's stakes are courtesy of Brisnet.
Here are the top lifetime speed figures for the Virginia Derby entrants.
| No. | Horse | Beyer* | TFUS* | Brisnet | HRN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buetane | 83 | 111 | 101 | 125 |
| 2 | Grittiness | 71 | 105 | 95 | 97 |
| 3 | Epic Desire | 68 | 97 | 87 | 105 |
| 4 | Work | 44 | 89 | 79 | 92 |
| 5 | High Camp | 85 | 106 | 96 | 112 |
| 6 | Lockstocknpharoah | 82 | 101 | 91 | 115 |
| 7 | Incredibolt | 81 | 106 | 96 | 111 |
| 8 | Confessional | 85 | 108 | 98 | 123 |
| 9 | Ocelli | 71 | 98 | 88 | 105 |
| 10 | Clocker Special | 71 | 97 | 87 | 95 |
*Beyer and TimeformUS speed figures are provided courtesy of Daily Racing Form.
HRN Handicappers
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On this week's Ron Flatter Racing Pod, Super Screener's Mike Shutty talks Virginia Derby with handicapping insights and tips for the day. Before his segment, though, hear from three of the last four winners of the National Horseplayer's Championship, from on-site in Las Vegas. Listen now.
Speaking of Super Screener, Shutty has an eye for big prices at Colonial – check it out.
Finally, if you are tired of late odds changes, you should check out our free Projected Odds tool here - it can help you decide whether that 20-1 horse on the morning line is really going to stay that price.
The Kentucky Derby winner will be racing over the next 4 weekends. Get the trusted insight to identify him early with the Super Screener. Get the final preps plus a reserved copy of the Kentucky Derby Super Screener now.