Virginia Derby fair odds: Shot in the dark in Kentucky Derby prep

The road to Kentucky Derby 2025 makes its first-ever stop in Virginia on Saturday when Colonial Downs plays host to the Virginia Derby, and race fans in Old Dominion will get the full Derby experience with Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert expected to start Sunland Park Derby winner Getaway Car in the one-turn 1 1/8-mile contest worth 50 points to the winner.

Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby six times but has made only one start in Virginia, a fourth-place finish for Senor Swinger in the 2002 Virginia Derby when that race was 1 1/4 miles and on turf. This also will be Baffert's first start at a Churchill Downs Inc.-owned facility not including its flagship track in Louisville since 2014 at Fair Grounds.

And while all that is part of the story that a sold-out crowd will experience in New Kent, Va., an even better story would be cashing a decent ticket on the race. Is that possible with Getaway Car? I'm torn.

With trainer Brad Cox opting for the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby next week, Sam F. Davis Stakes winner John Hancock will scratch from this spot, lowering Getaway Car's price on the Horse Racing Nation morning line from 9-5 to 6-5 with odds-on certainly possible.

I give the son of Curlin a 50% chance of winning this race, so odds-on is unplayable. The Sunland Derby came back fast, with his Ragozin Figure being the best of this group by far. There is no guarantee to running back to that race, though, as it was a lifetime best by far. And maybe the 27-day turnaround is too short given that Baffert initially planned to start Gaming here.

Another positive, though, is that Getaway Car has kept good company, finishing second behind eventual San Felipe Stakes (G2) winner Journalism in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). Another negative, from a betting perspective, is that Irad Ortiz Jr. takes the mount. Obviously he is a jockey that will give you among the best chances of winning, but he is certain to attract extra money.

Rapture is comfortably the second choice here off a late-January maiden win at Oaklawn, but I'm a little concerned about his style. The Brisnet pace ratings indicate he might be a touch off the top two pace threats while lacking the needed kick to put away a horse like Getaway Car. Click here for free ultimate past performances.

The other pace threat is American Promise, whom I definitely upgraded with the scratch of John Hancock. He was inexplicably nowhere near the front in the Risen Star (G2) and should be more prominent in this spot with a jockey change to Nik Juarez. 

Because my top three contenders all are speed horses, it is worth exploring which closer has the best chance. I'll let the board decide that for me as Omaha Omaha and Authentic Gallop are 8-1 on the reconstituted morning line and Render Judgment 10-1. Whichever of those three is the longest price might be worth zeroing in on as an underneath key, and all three are usable if playing for two of them to hit the exotics.