Virginia Derby fair odds: Ky. Derby alum is the value

Four months ago I had Grand Mo the First at 200-1 to win the Kentucky Derby. Yes, an impossible-to-like horse for the world's most famous horse race.

The Florida Derby third-place finisher was underlaid 49-1 in the Kentucky Derby and finished a non-threatening 18th, his only off-the-board finish in eight career starts.

Grand Mo the First returned Aug. 3 to win an overnight stakes at Gulfstream and run his non-dirt record to three wins from four starts with a third in the Zuma Beach Stakes last year behind multiple graded-stakes winner Endlessly and next-out winner Nagano.

All that is to say, the effort on the Triple Crown trail was understandable, and owner Grandpollo Stable got a Kentucky Derby experience. But the Uncle Mo colt might have a stakes future on turf or synthetic. That's what I'm willing to bet on in the Virginia Derby on Saturday at Colonial Downs, anyway.

Deterministic figures to be the favorite in the 1 1/8-mile Grade 3 test, and why not? He burst on the scene with an impressive maiden score followed by a win in the Gotham Stakes. The Wood Memorial and Peter Pan Stakes did not work out for the Liam's Map colt, but both his turf tries resulted in placed efforts in graded stakes. Still, that kind of class attracts big money, and I see him as an underlay here.

Likely affecting the prices are what the connections of Herchee and In a Jam decide to do as both are cross-entered Saturday at Kentucky Downs. I think any scratches funnel more money to Deterministic, so their non-participation in Virginia could mean better value on Grand Mo the First.