Virginia Derby fair odds: There is 1 bold choice Saturday

When it comes to betting the Grade 3 Virginia Derby on Saturday, the question for me is consistency versus last-out talent.

No. 11 Program Trading is the former. Based on the Ragozin Sheets, where lower numbers are better, he improved to 11.75 when stretching his unbeaten streak to three by winning the Saratoga Derby (G1). That number came after a 12.5 on debut and a 12 next out. He is very solid and very capable of winning this race.

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No. 10 Ari Gold is the latter. After a solid 2-year-old season that featured some development, he returned at 3 with a tough-trip, sixth-place finish in an allowance race at Saratoga before shipping to Laurel Park and earning a career-best 11.5 when second to Dataman in the Bald Eagle Derby.

It will be interesting to see what the public does with that last race. The morning line, which Colonial publishes based on Horse Racing Nation data, has Ari Gold and Dataman at 8-1 and 15-1, respectively, whereas my fair odds are at 7-2 and 7-1. The fact I like both horses as clear overlays tells me they probably won't be that high, but I do think we'll get our price, because there's no way Program Trading is not the favorite.

So two questions. Why do I think Ari Gold is more likely than Program Trading? And why the big shift on the Bald Eagle exacta after Dataman already beat Ari Gold?

On the first question, we are getting five pounds from the morning-line favorite. More importantly, we have a pace edge not only on him but also the field. Both of Ari Gold's wins last year came in gate-to-wire fashion. Although he was caught by Dataman in the Bald Eagle Derby, he was well clear of the third-place finisher.

Speaking of Dataman, his jockey Jorge Ruis is 0-for-22 since 2014 in stakes at Colonial. Although Ari Gold might be lone speed here, Dataman is one of several to get a stalking trip, and the derby waters are deeper in the Virginia than the Bald Eagle variety.

My top two tabs in the 11-horse Virginia Derby are both in the outside posts. I used the Horse Racing Nation Track Trends Tool to see how the track plays. It's incredibly fair, so I'm not deterred about taking speed from the outside.

As for the other major contender based on the morning line, I don't get it with no. 4 Salute the Stars. I mean I get why he takes money, but he's not for me in this spot against stakes-proven turf types.