Virginia Derby: Odds, analysis for Kentucky Derby prep
Saturday’s $500,000 Virginia Derby brings the road to Kentucky Derby 2026 to Colonial Downs with 50-25-15-10-5 qualifying points available to the top five finishers.
During this three-day spring meeting at Colonial Downs, the featured race drew a field of 10 3-year-olds who will go 1 1/8 miles. Five of them already have run on the Kentucky Derby trail, and four have earned qualifying points. Incredibolt is the only stakes winner in the field, with his victory in the Street Sense (G3) in October that earned him 10 points. Four of the trainers are Kentucky Derby winners.
Here is the analysis for the Virginia Derby with the official track morning-line odds. It is scheduled as race 9 on a 10-race card with post time set for 5:10 p.m. EDT.
1. Buetane, 5-2. Tiz the Law – Bob Baffert / Flavien Prat – 4: 1-2-1 - $230,500. Buetane will make his second start on the Kentucky Derby trail this year after a third-place finish in the Southwest (G3) last month where he pressed the pace and battled for the lead in the stretch before fading more than three lengths behind the late-running winner. He had a debut victory as a 2-year-old and hit the board in three graded stakes since then. Baffert has seven horses on the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard led by winners Potente (50) and Litmus Test (34). Buetane has 6 qualifying points. Probable favorite.
2. Grittiness, 12-1. Curlin – Todd Pletcher / Rajiv Maragh – 5: M-2-0 - $68,750. Grittiness is one of the horses in the field who are maidens. His five starts include three tries in New York maiden races, with a second in November. On the Derby trail he was fifth in the Remsen (G2) and a distant second in the Withers last month where he moved from last going nine furlongs. Pletcher has six horses on the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard, led by winners Class President (50), Renegade (25) and Nearly (20). Grittiness has 11 qualifying points. Toss.
3. Epic Desire, 15-1. Uncle Mo – Todd Pletcher / Sheldon Russell – 6: 1-1-1 - $62,525. Epic Desire needed five tries to get his maiden victory, which happened in January when he moved from two turf races to the dirt at Tampa Bay Downs going two turns. He went to the Derby trail in the Sam F. Davis and saved ground to finish fifth, which gave him 2 Derby points. Toss.
4. Work, 20-1. American Pharoah – Doug O’Neill / Mychal Sanchez – 5: 1-0-0 - $45,600. Work is a son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah who broke his maiden in his fifth race. Work moved to the turf in California in his third race and won a turf sprint last month by a neck at Santa Anita. O’Neill has four horses on the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard, led by Robusta (25) and Sunland Derby winner Pavlovian (20). Toss.
5. High Camp, 9-2. Instagrand – Will Walden / John Velazquez – 2: 1-1-0 - $49,200. High Camp is a home-bred son of Instagrand from OXO Equine. He broke his maiden in his second try at Gulfstream Park last month going seven-furlongs in a 10-horse field as the favorite with the addition of Lasix. High Camp is listed as the 9-2 third choice on the morning line which points him out to be a talented 3-year-old who will have to make a step forward as he moves onto the Derby trail. Top pick.
6. Lockstocknphaoroah, 5-1. American Pharoah – Thomas Drury Jr. / Edgar Morales – 2: 2-0-0 - $89,451. Lockstocknphaoroah is undefeated from two starts at Turfway Park in a maiden sprint in December and then in a mile allowance by eight lengths while under a strong hold as the favorite in a field of nine. Trainer Drury moves him to the dirt instead of running in the 100-point Jeff Ruby on March 21 on the synthetic track. Win contender.
7. Incredibolt, 10-1. Bolt d’Oro – Riley Mott / Jaime Torres – 4: 2-0-0 - $198,681. Incredibolt is the only stakes winner in the Virginia Derby field and the only previous winner on the Derby trail. He got a maiden win in his second try, which was at Churchill Downs in September, and then got 10 Derby points from his victory in the Street Sense. He returned to racing in January in the Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream and did very little running to finish a distanced last of six. He returned to training on a normal schedule and has posted four workouts without interruption. Live long shot.
8. Confessional, 4-1. Essential Quality – Brad Cox / Irad Ortiz Jr.– 3: 1-1-0 - $78,485. Confessional was a debut winner at the Keeneland fall meeting by three lengths going seven furlongs. As a 3-year-old he was second in a Gulfstream allowance and moved to the Derby trail in the Sam F. Davis. With the blinkers off for the first time, he showed speed and then faded back to seventh. Now the blinkers go back on along with rider Irad Ortiz. Cox has seven other horses on the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard, led by winners Commandment (50), Further Ado (25) and My World (10). Win contender.
9. Ocelli, 15-1. Connect – Whit Beckman / Joe Ramos – 4: M-1-2 - $33,600. Ocelli is the other horse in this field who is still a maiden. He tried three maiden races and finished in the top three each time while stretching out in distance to go two turns. Ocelli was a long shot in the Sam F. Davis, moved up to third place in the middle of the race but flattened out to finish sixth. Toss.
10. Clocker Special, 8-1. Not This Time – Rodolophe Brisset / Cristian Torres – 3: 1-1-1 - $96,488. Clocker Special made an early debut as a 2-year-old at Churchill in June and finished third. He broke his maiden next time at Ellis Park in July after pressing the pace in another sprint. Clocker Special was off until February, when he ran well going two turns at Oaklawn, had the lead and missed by a head after being pressured the whole way with first-time Lasix. Trainer Brisset has one other horse with Derby trail points. Toss.
Summary: Five horses in the Virginia Derby have experience on the Kentucky Derby trail. Incredibolt won the Street Sense as a 2-year-old but then had a disappointing performance in his first start this year in the Holy Bull. He went right back into training and had four works since that race at Gulfstream Park.
The edge on Saturday goes to the 3-year-olds who look like they are ready to move forward as they make their first start on the Derby trail. Lockstocknpharoah is undefeated in two starts on the synthetic at Turfway Park, including an allowance by eight lengths. The trainer opts to run him on the dirt instead of the Jeff Ruby next weekend.
High Camp was second in his debut at Gulfstream for Will Walden and then moved forward to beat a large field going seven furlongs. Walden is excellent at placing his horses in winning spots. High Camp needs to take another step forward and is the top pick in the Virginia Derby.