Kentucky Derby prep: Odds and analysis for Virginia Derby
Saturday’s $500,000 Virginia Derby is a new stop on the road to Kentucky Derby 2025. The race will be run at 1 1/8 miles around one-turn at Colonial Downs in Virginia. It is the final prep race that offers 50-25-15-10-5 qualifying points to the top five finishers.
Seven of the 3-year-olds in the field already ran on the Kentucky Derby trail and earned a total of 72 qualifying points. There are only two stakes winners, including Sunland Derby victor Getaway Car.
Here is the full-field analysis for the Virginia Derby with morning-line odds from the Horse Racing Nation staff. It is scheduled as race 9 on a 10-race card with post time set for 5:10 p.m. EDT.
1. Calling Card, 12-1. Complexity – Michael Maker / Luan Machado – 6: 1-1-1 - $77,600. Calling Card started racing with two tries on the turf in New York-bred races. He ran off to win by more than 17 lengths in a field of nine when he was switched to the main track at Aqueduct. He moved onto the Derby trail where he was eighth in the Grade 3 Lecomte and seventh in the Gotham (G3). Toss.
2. John Hancock, Scratch. Constitution – Brad Cox / Mike Smith – 2: 2-0-0 - $138,560. John Hancock will run in the Louisiana Derby (G2) on March 22.
3. American Promise, 10-1. Justify – D. Wayne Lukas / Nik Juarez – 8: 1-1-1 - $144,874. American Promise broke his maiden in his sixth start at Oaklawn in December as the favorite on a muddy and sealed track while racing on the lead going two turns. This year he ran twice on the Derby trail, with a seventh in the Southwest (G3) and a fifth in the Risen Star (G2) for 5 Derby points. Toss.
4. Omaha Omaha, 10-1. Audible – Michael Gorham / Raul Mena – 6: 2-1-2 - $127,300. Omaha Omaha is a late-running Virginia-bred who raced as a 2-year-old at Delaware Park and Laurel Park. He got his first victory in his third start going a mile and then won an allowance on a muddy and sealed track by seven lengths. The son of Audible ran twice on the New York road to the Derby, finishing second in the Jerome and third in the Withers to earn 11 Derby points. Live long shot.
5. Studlydoright, 15-1. Nyquist – John Robb / Xavier Perez – 9: 3-2-0 - $292,205. Studlydoright is the most experienced horse in the field, with nine starts at five different tracks. The Maryland-bred won his first two starts from off the pace as a 2-year-old in a maiden at Laurel and then in the Tremont at the Belmont at Saratoga meeting. He ran in seven more stakes races and finished second in the Sanford (G3) and the Laurel Futurity and won the Nashua. In 2025 Studlydoright was fourth in the Jerome and fifth in the Battaglia to earn 6 Derby points. Blinkers come off. Toss.
6. Getaway Car, 7-5. Curlin – Bob Baffert / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 7: 3-2-0 - $585,800. Getaway Car will ship east for the first time and shows up as the leading money winner in the field. He also won his first two starts, which were at the Del Mar summer meeting with front-end victories in a maiden and the Best Pal (G3). On the Derby trail, Getaway Car was second in the American Pharoah (G1), fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, second in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) and won the Sunland Derby last month by a nose for a total of 36 qualifying points. Win contender.
7. Rapture, 5-2. Uncle Mo – Brad Cox / Flavien Prat – 2: 1-1-0 - $74,000. Rapture has only two starts. He was second in his debut behind a horse who went on to finish fourth in the Risen Star and then won by more than six lengths at Oaklawn going two-turns with Lasix as an odds-on favorite. Flavien Prat stays on Rapture. Top choice.
Summary: Getaway Car will be a heavy favorite and the one to beat after John Hancock was pointed to the Louisiana Derby. The Baffert runner certainly will become a factor in the early pace and will have to carry his speed through the one-turn, 1 1/8-mile distance.
Rapture now will be the only Brad Cox runner in the field and figures to get a stalking trip. If Getaway Car fades down the stretch. Rapture is likely to take over the lead, and that makes him the top choice.