Vegas players may bet ‘no’ on 10 Kentucky Derby contenders
Horseplayers wary of Bob Baffert’s 3-year-olds who have an uncertain road to the Kentucky Derby were given another wagering option Thursday.
For the third year in a row, Circa Sports in Las Vegas is offering yes-no props on some of the shortest-priced horses in its Kentucky Derby futures. Bettors may lay a price to get a return if a given horse does not win the $3 million race on May 7. They also would cash if that horse were to lose or not even get to the starting gate.
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“It doesn’t get used as much as the ‘yes,’ but it allows bettors who have strong opinions against a horse to bet that opinion,” said Paul Zilm, who is in his third year writing the Derby futures for Circa. “It also keeps the ‘yes’ price in check.”
Epicenter and Smile Happy, each 10-1 Circa co-favorites to win the Derby, are minus-1600 not to win. In other words, it would cost $1,600 to make $100. As with the “yes” option, all bets are immediate action. That is to the advantage of the “no” bettor, since a horse’s failure to even make the race would result in a winning ticket.
Two Baffert horses – Messier and Newgrange – are among the 10 Derby candidates who have been added as “no” choices. If they are not transferred to eligible trainers, and if Baffert does not find a way to force Churchill Downs to drop his two-year drug ban, then “no” bets on them would cash simply because those horses could not get to the gate.
“People still have shown an interest in betting Baffert’s horses despite no change in his status,” Zilm said. “Every time I try to raise Messier or Newgrange, they get bet back down. I think we will obviously learn more about Newgrange this weekend.”
As a “yes” option, Messier is the 12-1 third choice to win. Now he also is a minus-2000 prop not to win. Newgrange, who is favored to win Saturday’s Rebel Stake (G2) at Oaklawn, is 20-1 “yes” and minus-3500 “no.”
| Ky. Derby yes-no | Yes | No | Ky. Derby yes-no | Yes | No | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Epicenter | 10-1 | 1-16 | Corniche | 25-1 | 1-999,999 | |
| Smile Happy | 10-1 | 1-16 | Forbidden Kingdom | 25-1 | 1-999,999 | |
| Messier | 12-1 | 1-20 | Early Voting | 25-1 | 1-999,999 | |
| Charge It | 15-1 | 1-26 | Giant Game | 30-1 | 1-999,999 | |
| Classic Causeway | 18-1 | 1-32 | High Oak | 30-1 | 1-999,999 | |
| Mo Donegal | 18-1 | 1-32 | Rattle N Roll | 30-1 | 1-999,999 | |
| Emmanuel | 18-1 | 1-32 | Commandperformance | 32-1 | 1-999,999 | |
| Chasing Time | 20-1 | 1-35 | Cyberknife | 40-1 | 1-999,999 | |
| Newgrange | 20-1 | 1-35 | Echo Zulu | 40-1 | 1-999,999 | |
| Zandon | 20-1 | 1-35 | In Due Time | 40-1 | 1-999,999 | |
| White Abarrio | 45-1 | 1-999,999 | ||||
| American Icon | 45-1 | 1-999,999 | ||||
| Major General | 50-1 | 1-999,999 | ||||
| Pappacap | 50-1 | 1-999,999 | ||||
| Tiz the Bomb | 50-1 | 1-999,999 |
Zilm said the limit for the regular Derby futures remains $200. For the yes-no pools, it is $1,000 for odds up to 10-1, then $500 up to 20-1 and $300 on up to 50-1.
“Because of some software obstacles in the traditional format, this allows us to offer different limits on horses,” Zilm said. “That means you have to be willing to take at 500-1 what you are willing to take at 10-1. In a ‘yes-no’ setup, we can set up limits by individual horses.”
Zilm said anyone wanting a higher limit may ask in person at The D Las Vegas, the Golden Gate Hotel & Casino, The Pass Casino and the Tuscany Suites & Casinos. Increased limits are not available on the Circa Sports app, which may be used anywhere in Nevada. Out-of-state bettors may use a licensed proxy to place their wagers if they already have registered in person at one of the Circa properties.
Although the “no” bets have been set up in the past to be included in multi-sport parlays, Zilm said they are not yet available with this year’s futures. He added that may change closer to race day in 10 weeks.
Technically, there are 25 horses carrying yes-no options but only 10 that have practical odds to bet against them. The other 15 are showing “no” odds of nearly one in a million, actually 1-999,999, so it figures those will attract no action.