Vanderbilt Fair Odds: Twisted Ride the longshot key

From a "who is most likely to run the type of race that wins the Vanderbilt Handicap?" standpoint, #6 Skelly is the horse to beat.

He is in form, has all the right connections, and is the speed of the speed in a six-furlong sprint. His best is the best of these and even his two most recent races-slower than his best but still very competitive-win this race at least some of the time. And there is no reason to think he will run a clunker, so one of the first two scenarios seem likely.

There are things to like about four of the other five runners (#3 My Buddy B looks overmatched). #1 Nakatomi will be the one closing. #2 Twisted Ride ran a lifetime best last time and the workouts indicate he is still in top form. #4 Baby Yoda has not run well enough to win this at the others' best, but is consistent enough to benefit if others don't show up. #5 Subrogate, like our top pick the deuce, ran a career best last out.

So what do all those positives mean for how to bet the race? Well, normally I'd say let the board decide, but I think there is a clear picture here that Twisted Ride will be the longest price of the five horses I discussed. 

And I'd be disingenuous if I did not acknowledge that I get the concern: His graded stakes efforts in New York have not been great, and now he is trying a Grade 1 in his Saratoga debut. He also is a frontrunner and not as fast as Skelly early, so does he get used too hard early?

I don't think so. Or at least I'm betting not. Twisted Ride is getting six pounds from the favorite, and I think from that inside post position he can let Skelly go and then hopefully make a race of it late. Even if not, he spices things up anywhere on the ticket.

The plan is to bet Twisted Ride to Win and key in the exotics with 1, 4, 5, 6 and press with the 6.