Value plays: 5 long shots to play on Kentucky Derby undercard

The Kentucky Derby is the jewel of Saturday's 14-race card at Churchill Downs, but it is far from the only fantastic wagering opportunity of the day. Saturday's card offers nine stakes races and unlike Friday, the majority of them look to be wide-open affairs.

Below I analyze five runners who should be included in all horizontal and vertical wagers as they offer tremendous value at their morning-line odds.

Race 4

No. 4 Celtic Chaos, 20-1, and no. 12 Patriot Spirit, 8-1. The Knicks Go Stakes might be the best betting race of the entire card. The 14-horse field lacks a clear standout and is begging to be won by a long shot. I will use two horses at good prices in horizontal wagers. Patriot Spirit looks like a perfect fit for a one-turn mile. He just missed in the Fifth Season Stakes going one mile at Oaklawn two starts back when defeating morning-line favorite Liberal Arts by almost three lengths. He made a strong middle move in the Grade 3 Essex Stakes last out but tired late at a distance beyond his scope. There is not as much speed signed on as one would think in this spot, and the colt has a chance to take the field wire to wire on the front.

If Patriot Spirit gets run down late, I believe it will be by Celtic Chaos. This gelding also loves the one-turn mile configuration and signaled a return to his best form last out off a short break when running a strong second. His best is more than enough to win this race as he was a neck and a nose away from winning the Carter Stakes (G2) and Fred W. Hooper Stakes (G3), respectively, last year with a Beyer Speed Figure of 97 in both races. Umberto Rispoli has a chance to start his day off strong before riding Journalism in the Kentucky Derby.

Race 9

No. 2 Scipio, 12-1. Richard Baltas always has been high on this runner as he started him in three stakes races before he broke his maiden. Although he was competitive in each of those races, the lightbulb really has gone on since breaking maiden and removing the blinkers. The improving son of Caravaggio found himself too far back in the Transylvania Stakes (G3) before making a wide rally into second. He can turn the tables on Test Score with a better trip in a race where the favorites look a tad overrated on the morning line. 

Race 10

No. 2 Kopion, 8-1. If this filly is actually 8-1 at any point in the wagering on Saturday, I will sprint to the windows with enough money to make sure she is no longer 8-1. Exaggeration aside, this is a star filly in the making. She is undefeated sprinting, has three wins at the distance, has an improving pattern, has tactical speed and her last Beyer Speed Figure towers over her competitors. Ways and Means, Scylla and Vahva, the top three choices on the morning-line, all exit one of the weakest editions of Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint in recent memory and all have not raced in six months. She has more talent and recency than her main rivals and is a single at whatever price she ends up going off at. 

Race 11

No. 8 Cameo Performance, 20-1. This runner's poor race two back at a marathon distance over a tricky Kentucky Downs course can easily be forgiven. If one throws out that race, this colt's form really brightens. He picks up Luis Saez, and his effort last out in the Muniz Memorial Stakes (G2) presented by Horse Racing Nation was fantastic. He needed the race and was the only horse closing into an extremely slow pace. Below is closer analysis of the early position and final finish for each of the six runners in this race who exit the Muniz Memorial. 

Idratherbeblessed: 1st, 1st

Gigante: 3rd, 2nd

Cameo Performance: 7th, 3rd

Redistricting: 5th, 6th

Spirit of St Louis: 6th, 4th

Brilliant Berti: 10th, 8th