Valley View fair odds: Play other Casse at a seductive price

The competitiveness of the three-year-old filly turf division is on full display Friday at Keeneland where 15 sophomores entered the Grade 2 Valley View with 12 able to start.

The morning line favorites Play With Fire and Classic Q both make sense from class and figure standpoints but definitely have the feel of underlays against their peers.

Mark Casse trains Classic Q as well as Vixen, and it is the latter filly who catches our eye at 8-1 morning line versus 7-2 on her stablemate. Classic Q was out of her element last out when off the pace at Kentucky Downs. I'm figuring a return to Jose Ortiz signals a return to front-end tactics here especially given Vixen is likely to get first run at her.

Vixen chased yet another Casse-trained three-year-old turf filly home earlier this year in Nitrogen, who would be odds-on against this group. Sure, there are some questions regarding Vixen's readiness off the four-month layoff, but at the expected price she's a play.

Somethinabouther has a long shot look to her at 15-1 morning line. I like that trainer Brendan Walsh thought enough of her to ship her to Woodbine to avoid the heavies, like the aforementioned Nitrogen, this summer at Saratoga. She is one of those plays where I'm not betting on her because I think she can improve but because she is consistent and there is some chance that her consistent above-average performance gets the right trip to pull the upset.

The Valley View is the last leg of the $3 all-turf pick 3, and I think most players will be looking to "get live" to the obvious Play With Fire and Classic Q. Both Vixen and Somethinabouther are logical enough at the expected prices, especially in the last leg of a bet like this, to narrow on them.