Fair odds: Overlays lie on the outside in the Valley View
With 16 entered and only a dozen able to start, the Grade 2 Valley View Stakes on Friday at Keeneland is nearly certain to have a full field.
What's more, regardless of how the field shakes out after scratches, I am quite certain there will be wagering opportunities for this one-mile turf test for 3-year-old fillies.
None of the three horses drawn to the outside in the main body of the field look to threaten to be favored, and all are in the mix for me as contenders.
Uphill Dance is 20-1 on the morning line and returns to dirt after trying sophomore sprinters on dirt last out. She never has tried two turns on dirt, and her only two-turn effort pressed the pace in a Grade 3 at Woodbine before tiring. Those turf efforts in Canada were decent, and Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott might have this one figured out for her second start for his barn.
Nice As Pie impressed earlier this year at Turfway Park. I was surprised to see her so far back in both turf efforts. She was a bit closer when sprinting on synthetic against older last out, and I think the stretch back out to two turns should have her somewhat involved early.
Simply In Front came from way out of it last time to win the Music City Stakes (G2) at Kentucky Downs. I'd like her chances a lot more with a scratch to her inside because the outside post in 12-horse fields going a mile on the turf at Keeneland is 1-for-84 since 2015.
I did not price in also-eligible horses because that's too much calculus without knowing who scratched for them to draw. But it's worth mentioning that Kehoe Beach is not without hope in here given her front-end zip. Unfortunately, if she does draw in, she will be in post 12 unless there are more than four scratches.
Les Reys can win, but at 5-2 morning line against fair odds of 4-1, I can't get excited about her. She is one I would use with Uphill Dance, Nice as Pie, Simply in Front or Kehoe Beach, though, should any of them be ignored in the wagering. Buttercream Babe is 9-2 on the morning line and a complete toss for me. If she runs well after taking money, then I'm just going to lose.