Fair odds: Valdale at Turfway Park provides chance to single

Given the competitive nature of nearly every race at Turfway Park, approaching any potential single at the Florence, Ky., oval is a trepidatious proposition, but Nice as Pie is by far the most likely winner of the $125,000 Valdale Stakes on Saturday.

Trainer Kelsey Danner gave Dede McGehee's homebred Tapiture filly a freshening after a disappointing debut from an outside post. Nice as Pie responded as a 3-year-old with a maiden win at 14-1 followed by an electrifying, 7 1/4-length score as the roughly 6-5 favorite in the first-level allowance race.

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A repeat of either effort absolutely rolls this field, but given the long layoff between her first and second starts and that this will be her third start in less than six weeks, there is some concern that Nice as Pie regresses here.

If I were basing my fair odds on the fastest races of these fillies, then Nice as Pie would be 1-5. Both her wins are just that much better than the rest, but they’re not machines, and there are several potential alternatives for a win bet if Nice as Pie is odds-on in this spot. 

Vicountess probably is the most likely of the alternatives given the ideal draw and proclivity for sprinting on the Tapeta. 

I'll play the morning line, so to speak, in the multi-race wagers and single Nice as Pie. As the toteboard becomes more known, I’ll mix in the chance that Vicountess offers value followed by Pipit, Indian Ink and Summerintahoe.

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