Using AI to model Keeneland September sale's book 1 picks

For the 2025 Keeneland September yearling sale, an artificial-intelligence model developed by Horse Racing Nation projects 13 yearlings as the highest-priced lots in book 1, led by three Gun Runner colts with predicted sale prices exceeding $1.4 million. These elite prospects represent the most coveted sire lines and strongest female families in the catalog.

The sale features over 4,600 yearlings cataloged across five books. Book 1 contains 360 of the most elite prospects, featuring offspring from the world's leading stallions and from champion-producing families.

The HRN AI model uses sales data spanning 26 years and analyzes over 117,000 sales graduates and over 500,000 non-sale horses to predict auction prices and future racing performance. The machine learning-system evaluates pedigree patterns, market trends, genetic crosses and family performance indicators to generate forecasts for yearlings before they enter training.

Top sales predictions for book 1

The HRN AI model projects 13 yearlings as the highest-priced lots in book 1, led by three Gun Runner colts with predicted sale prices exceeding $1.4 million. These elite prospects represent the most coveted sire lines and strongest female families in the catalog.

The chart below demonstrates the price prediction accuracy for the 2024 Keeneland September yearling sale. Although predicting the exact sales price of any one yearling is challenging, the chart illustrates that overall the AI price predictions form along a line where the price predictions and actual price go up together. The yellow lines indicate the 50% prediction interval, meaning 50% of all predictions fall within the yellow lines, and 25% a prediction will be higher and 25% a prediction will be lower than those lines. 

Hip 278 leads price predictions as Gun Runner colt

Hip 278, a Gun Runner colt out of Grade 1 winner Cavorting, tops the price predictions with a forecasted sale price of $1,900,403. This colt represents Gun Runner's sixth crop and comes from Cavorting, who earned $2.06 million on the track. Cavorting already has produced Grade 1 winner Clairiere, who has banked $3.27 million in earnings.

The cross between Gun Runner and Cavorting's broodmare sire Bernardini has produced one-graded stakes winner and two graded-stakes placers from 91 starters with 21 winners for a 23% win rate. Cavorting has produced three foals of racing age, with all three becoming winners.

Hip 296 is second Gun Runner colt from Grade 1 winner

Hip 296, another Gun Runner colt from his sixth crop, earns the second-highest price prediction at $1,536,896. This yearling is out of Grade 1 winner Dame Dorothy, who earned $750,000 during her racing career. Dame Dorothy produced Grade 3 winner Spice Is Nice, who has earned $260,000.

This colt benefits from the same Gun Runner-Bernardini cross as Hip 278 above. Dame Dorothy has produced three foals of racing age with all three becoming winners.

Hip 73 offers Gun Runner filly from stakes-producing dam

Hip 73, a Gun Runner filly representing his sixth crop, ranks third in price predictions at $1,456,623. The filly is out of Playtime, who earned $20,000 during her racing career but has proven herself as a broodmare by producing Grade 2 winner Jouster, who has earned $343,000.

The genetic cross between Gun Runner and Street Cry bloodlines shows 69 starters producing 12 winners for a 17% win rate but no graded-stakes placings. Playtime has produced two foals of racing age, with both becoming winners.

Hip 214 represents Into Mischief from champion family

Hip 214, an Into Mischief colt from his 15th crop, earns the fourth-highest price prediction at $1,421,695. This colt is out of Irish-bred White Hot, who did not race but produced Grade 1 winner Pizza Bianca, who has earned $793,000.

The cross between Into Mischief and Galileo bloodlines has produced one graded-stakes winner from 68 starters with 11 winners for a 16% win rate. White Hot has produced two foals of racing age, with both becoming winners.

Hip 32 completes top five with Curlin filly

Hip 32, a Curlin filly from his 15th crop, rounds out the top five price predictions at $1,303,905. This filly is out of Grade 1-placed Make Mischief, who earned $754,000 on the track.

The genetic cross with Into Mischief shows one graded-stakes winner, with 38 starters producing eight winners for a 21% win rate. Make Mischief has no foals of racing age yet, making this filly one of her first opportunities at stud.

The table below outlines the top 10 price predictions for Book 1. The price target column shows the 50th percentile and 75th percentile predictions, meaning it could go over the higher number 25% of the time.

Top racing predictions for Book 1

The HRN performance model identified 13 yearlings in book 1 who received the maximum rating of 100, representing the highest racing potential in the catalog. These yearlings are part of an exclusive group, as only 47 of the 4,692 total yearlings across all five books received this top rating. The remaining top-rated yearlings are distributed with 10 in book 2, 11 in book 3, two in book 4, and 11 in book 5.

The 13 Book 1 yearlings with top ratings represent diverse sire lines and price ranges, spanning from a forecasted low of $320,072 to a high of $1,900,403. The model evaluates over 150 data components to generate each rating. In the writeups below, we have included the cross data, which has become extremely popular in recent years, but we should note that our model did not place any particular significance on cross data having strong predictive value. 

Hip 70 represents Speightstown colt from champion family

Hip 70, a Speightstown colt from his 19th crop, earns a perfect 100 performance rating with a forecasted sale price of $595,396. This colt is out of Grade 1 winner Perfect Shirl, who earned $1.39 million on the track and already has produced Grade 1 winner Shirl's Speight, who has banked $1.62 million.

The Speightstown-Perfect Soul cross has produced one graded-stakes winner and two graded-stakes placers from 204 starters with 28 winners for a 14% win rate. Perfect Shirl has produced six foals of racing age with four becoming winners.

Hip 278 earns perfect rating in both categories

Hip 278, the Gun Runner colt out of Cavorting who topped the price predictions, also earns a 100 performance rating. With both the highest price prediction at $1,900,403 and maximum performance rating, this colt represents dual appeal for commercial buyers and racing partnerships.

The combination of a Grade 1-winning dam who earned $2.06 million and has produced Grade 1 winner Clairiere makes this yearling attractive.  

Hip 204 offers Into Mischief colt from Grade 2 winner

Hip 204, an Into Mischief colt from his 15th crop, earns a 100 performance rating with a forecasted sale price of $665,297. This colt is out of Grade 2 winner Vertical Oak, who earned $773,000 on the track. Vertical Oak represents a proven stakes winner at the dam level with limited offspring to evaluate.

The genetic cross with Giant Oak shows one graded-stakes placer from 12 starters producing five winners for a 42% win rate. Vertical Oak has produced two foals of racing age, with both becoming winners.

Hip 151, Not This Time filly

Hip 151, a Not This Time filly from his seventh crop, receives a perfect 100 performance rating with a forecasted sale price of $411,498. This filly is out of Street Strut, who earned $20,000 during her racing career and comes from a family with limited racing exposure.

The limited genetic cross data with Street Cry shows three starters producing one winner for a 33% win rate with no graded stakes placings. Street Strut has produced one foal of racing age, who has not yet won.

Hip 300 represents Tapit colt from Grade 1-producing family

Hip 300, a Tapit colt from his 19th crop, earns a perfect 100 performance rating with a forecasted sale price of $320,072. This colt is out of Grade 3-placed Danzatrice, who earned $312,000 on the track and has produced Grade 1 winner Tapit Trice, who has earned $1.87 million.

The genetic cross with Dunkirk shows one graded-stakes winner from 15 starters producing six winners for a 40% win rate. Danzatrice has produced three foals of racing age, with two becoming winners.