Use superfecta keys to unlock 3 races at Aqueduct, Keeneland

These Saturday races at Keeneland and Aqueduct meet the criteria I've established for using the superfecta-key betting strategy.

Aqueduct

Race 7

This claiming race for 3-year-olds and up, non-winners of two lifetime, on the outer turf attracted a field of 11, including two that have new trainers. Two are trying turf for the first time and one is trying a turf route for the first time.

Five runners exit turf races – three at Aqueduct and two at Saratoga – while five exit dirt races – four at Aqueduct and one at Parx – with the final runner coming out of a Turfway Park synthetic race.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and one in three at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in eight starts for races that show. I expect a moderate to fast pace with the presence of four horses that have shown speed on the dirt entered. The advantage should be to midpack runners and closers.

Linda Rice saddles no. 1 Mo Rewards, who should show strong late foot off then anticipated hot pace. Two of his prior five turf tries were at marathon distances, where he ran poorly, but his three other turf routes show a third and fourth. He is your key runner at odds of 8-1.

No. 8 Born a Gambler has a new trainer and makes his first start since July at Saratoga. He shows seven top four finishes in eight lifetime starts across dirt and synthetic and should improve in his first 4-year-old try at odds of 8-1.

One of the first time turf runners is no. 11 Legendary Lore for William Morey, who is having a solid meet. This runner shows two solid placings in three lifetime synthetic starts and replicating that form on turf puts him in the mix at odds of 8-1.

Todd Pletcher trains no. 3 Splendid Summer, who also was last seen at Saratoga in the summer of 2022 finishing second at this distance. He also broke his maiden at Belmont at the same distance and shows two in the money finishes in three turf tries. He should improve in his first start as a 4-year-old and is 7-2.

Brad Cox saddles the likely favorite, no. 9 More Than Work, who comes out of a synthetic race at Turfway Park with five in the money finishes across synthetic and turf in seven lifetime starts. Prior to that Turfway fifth place finish this runner had six consecutive fourth place or better finishes all in routes.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 1 with 3, 8, 9 and 11. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 9

A seven furlong dirt allowance race for fillies and mares 3-year-olds and up attracted a field of nine, including two trained by Mitch Friedman.

All runners exit dirt races – six at Aqueduct and one each at Tampa Bay, Parx and Gulfstream.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in eight starts for races that show. The pace should be slow with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

Jim Ryerson saddles no. 8 Cupids Girl, who has two wins and a second at the distance in four lifetime starts and rarely runs a bad race. She is as consistent as anyone in the field and is your key runner at odds of 6-1.

No. 3 Mashnee Girl turns back to a sprint after nine routes in her last 10 tries, including one turf run. She should be on or near the lead and take the field as far as she can and is one for one at the distance. She is 12-1.

No. 9 To a T is a grinder who shows 16 in the money finishes in 26 lifetime tries, but only three wins. She should be passing horses late for a solid placing at odds of 8-1.

Tom Albertrani saddles no. 1 Sterling Silver, who has met the toughest competition in the field. She closed out last year in five consecutive graded stakes, resulting in four top four finishes with no wins. Her first try this year was an inconsequential fourth. Expect improvement as one of the lower priced runners.

The Chad Brown trained no. 4 Asset Purchase is making only her third start and shows a runaway win at six furlongs on debut and a strong second in a stake both at Aqueduct. She is going to be tough to beat as the betting favorite.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 8 with 1, 3, 4 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.

Keeneland

Race 8

The Elkhorn Stakes (G2) for 4-year-olds and up contested at 1 1/2 miles on the turf attracted a field of 10, including two each trained by Mike Maker, Brendan Walsh and Jorge Abreu.

Nine runners exit turf races – six at Gulfstream, two at Fair Grounds and one at Keeneland – with the final runner exiting a Turfway Park synthetic race.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and at the distance.

The runners have combined for a lead at the second call only six times in 93 total starts for races that show. I anticipate a slow pace with the advantage to forwardly placed runners.

One of the Walsh runners is no. 3 Rising Empire, who is going in a marathon for the first time and should be forwardly placed. He enters this event off three consecutive turf runs and has shown improvement each time, including a solid second in a graded stake last time out. The additional distance should be no problem for your key runner at odds of 6-1.

No. 8 Highest Honors, trained by Chad Brown, shifted to turf in his 6-year-old season after running exclusively on dirt. He has never finished worse than fourth in eight turf races and should be grinding his way to a solid showing at odds of 5-1.

The other Walsh trainee is no. 9 Verstappen, who is making his third 4-year-old start after two runs on synthetic at Turfway. He has finished in the top three eight of his last 10 starts across turf and synthetic, is usually in the mix early, and in his two off the board finishes he was beaten less than three lengths. He should improve and looks like an overlay at odds of 20-1.

One of the Maker runners is no. 5 Red Knight, who sports a strong 18 of 29 in-the- money record on turf and seems to always be a factor late. He has won three of his last five tries are the wins all came at this marathon distance. He is difficult to dismiss at relatively short odds.

The other Maker runner is no. 2 Value Engineering, who has hit the board in 14 of 17 lifetime turf tries and has a second-place finish in one start at the distance. He is going to be moving late at odds of 7-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 3 with 2, 5, 8 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.

Why play superfectas?

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed, making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10 cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.

Superfecta key wagering savings

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.