Updated clinch scenarios for Kentucky Derby and Oaks 2026
This is not about historic trends or the likelihood of attrition. Both will be measured soon enough. This is all about pure, raw math to determine what horses need to do in seven graded stakes the next 10 days to make the main draws in the Kentucky Derby and Oaks.
Twenty-seven horses were entered for the Blue Grass (G1), the Wood Memorial (G2) and the Santa Anita Derby (G1), the final win-and-you’re-in paths Saturday to Kentucky Derby 2026. There also were 22 fillies drawn into Friday’s Ashland (G1) and Saturday’s Santa Anita Oaks (G2) and Gazelle (G3), the final automatic qualifiers for the Kentucky Oaks (G1).
Ed DeRosa’s fair odds for Kentucky Derby 2026.
8 spots are open for Derby
After the fields were filled this week for Saturday’s cards at Keeneland, Aqueduct and Santa Anita, the mathematical cutline for the Derby dropped from 61 to 60. That comes with an asterisk for now.
Counting three international qualifiers, as many as 22 horses could make the cut after the Lexington (G3), a minor, last-chance qualifier April 14 at Keeneland. With only 20 spaces in the Derby starting gate, the earnings tiebreaker could kick in. The math says six horses are certain to emerge from a deadlock at 60 based on their non-restricted stakes earnings.
None of this presumes what actually will happen this weekend. If the results fall just right, and if dropouts happen before May 2, the cutline could drop to 50 or even lower. For now, though, this is what the math says.
| Kentucky Derby 2026 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinched | Rank | Pts. | *Earnings | Next race entered |
| Commandment | 1st | 150 | $943,020 | |
| Renegade | 2nd | 125 | $1,002,500 | |
| Fulleffort | 3rd | 110 | $507,900 | |
| The Puma | 4th | 106 | $428,000 | |
| Silent Tactic | 5th | 100 | $1,020,130 | |
| Emerging Market | 6th | 100 | $600,000 | |
| Pavlovian | 7th | 70 | $527,000 | |
| Incredibolt | 8th | 60 | $424,570 | |
| Golden Tempo | 9th | 60 | $300,000 | |
| Danon Bourbon | 18th | Jpn | $221,246 | |
| Wonder Dean | 19th | E-M | $725,172 | |
| Six Speed | 20th | E-M | $314,366 | |
| Needs 5th to clinch | ||||
| Class President | 10th | 50 | $569,700 | Blue Grass (G1), KEE, Sat. |
| Need 4th to clinch | ||||
| Iron Honor | 13th | 50 | $165,000 | Wood Mem. (G2), AQU, Sat. |
| Potente | 14th | 50 | $120,000 | SA Derby (G1), SA, Sat. |
| Needs 3rd to clinch | ||||
| Further Ado | 21st | 35 | $312,470 | Blue Grass (G1), KEE, Sat. |
| Needs 2nd to clinch | ||||
| Robusta | 25th | 25 | $40,500 | SA Derby (G1), SA, Sat. |
| Intrepido (r) | 26th | 23 | $260,000 | SA Derby (G1), SA, Sat. |
| Talk to Me Jimmy | 27th | 20 | $110,000 | Wood Mem. (G2), AQU, Sat. |
| Great White (g) | 28th | 20 | $107,440 | Blue Grass (G1), KEE, Sat. |
| Bravaro | 29th | 20 | $68,700 | Wood Mem. (G2), AQU, Sat. |
| Buetane | 30th | 16 | $212,500 | Wood Mem. (G2), AQU, Sat. |
| Napoleon Solo | 31st | 15 | $286,520 | Wood Mem. (G2), AQU, Sat. |
| So Happy | 32nd | 15 | $144,000 | SA Derby (G1), SA, Sat. |
| Talkin | 34th | 10 | $111,750 | Blue Grass (G1), KEE, Sat. |
| Needs 2nd & nom. | ||||
| Right to Party + | 15 | $36,000 | Wood Mem. (G2), AQU, Sat. | |
| Needs win to clinch | ||||
| Ottinho | 35th | 6 | $24,000 | Blue Grass or Wood Mem. |
| Cherokee Nation | 36th | 3 | $13,805 | SA Derby (G1), SA, Sat. |
| Courting | 37th | 2 | $20,000 | Wood Mem. (G2), AQU, Sat. |
| Ocelli | 38th | 0 | $5,200 | Wood Mem. (G2), AQU, Sat. |
| Start the Ride | 39th | 0 | $500 | SA Derby (G1), SA, Sat. |
| Minorinconvenience | 40th | 0 | $0 | Wood Mem. (G2), AQU, Sat. |
| Creole Chrome | 41st | 0 | $0 | Blue Grass (G1), KEE, Sat. |
| Steel | 42nd | 0 | $0 | Wood Mem. (G2), AQU, Sat. |
| Reagan’s Honor | 43rd | 0 | $0 | Blue Grass (G1), KEE, Sat. |
| Albus | 44th | 0 | $0 | Wood Mem. (G2), AQU, Sat. |
| Moonstrocity | 45th | 0 | $0 | Blue Grass (G1), KEE, Sat. |
| Need win & nom. | ||||
| Red Zone Runner + | 0 | $54,400 | Wood Mem. (G2), AQU, Sat. | |
| Vitruvian Man + | 0 | $0 | SA Derby (G1), SA, Sat. | |
| Not yet | ||||
| Stark Contrast | 11th | 50 | $439,900 | |
| Chief Wallabee | 12th | 50 | $175,800 | |
| Chip Honcho | 15th | 49 | $190,000 | |
| Universe | 16th | 38 | $244,650 | |
| Grittiness | 17th | 36 | $150,000 | |
| Need help | ||||
| Nearly | 22nd | 35 | $220,450 | |
| Litmus Test | 23rd | 34 | $429,688 | |
| Crown the Buckeye + | 28 | $73,500 | ||
| Blackout Time | 24th | 25 | $237,875 | |
| Taptastic + | 25 | $138,750 | ||
| Bricklin | 27th | 21 | $135,250 | |
| Express Kid | 28th | 20 | $308,800 | |
| Wayne’s Law + | 20 | $134,700 | ||
| Secured Freedom | 33rd | 16 | $24,000 | |
| Confessional | 33rd | 15 | $55,000 | |
| Brant | 37th | 14 | $364,000 | |
| Carson Street | 38th | 11 | $35,000 | |
| Redland Rebels | 40th | 10 | $89,400 | |
| Baytown Dreamer | 41st | 7 | $171,109 | |
| Cannoneer | 43rd | 4 | $12,375 | |
| Civil Liberty | 45th | 2 | $54,000 | |
| Taj Mahal + | 0 | $60,000 | ||
| * non-restricted stakes | ||||
| + not TC nominated | ||||
| Jpn Japan berth | ||||
| E-M Euro-Mideast berths | ||||
| g - gelding | ||||
| r - ridgling |
Oaks comes down to Friday, Saturday
At least one and maybe two Kentucky Oaks slots will be determined first by the Ashland. Friday’s race at Keeneland is likely to trigger another adjustment to the clinch scenarios before Saturday’s Gazelle at Aqueduct and Santa Anita Derby in California.
Undefeated futures favorite Zany needs at least a second-place finish in the Ashland to assure herself of an invitation to run for the lilies.
Since there is no equivalent of the Lexington for fillies contending for the Kentucky Oaks, this weekend will set the field of 14. As with the Derby, attrition will be the final factor before the race is run May 1 at Churchill Downs.
| Kentucky Oaks 2026 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinched | Rank | Points | *Earnings | Next race entered |
| Life of Joy | 1st | 122.00 | $401,420 | |
| Bella Ballerina | 2nd | 110.00 | $498,440 | |
| Counting Stars | 3rd | 100.00 | $834,156 | |
| Prom Queen | 4th | 100.00 | $151,900 | |
| Explora | 5th | 95.00 | $1,016,250 | |
| She Be Smooth | 6th | 75.00 | $146,020 | |
| My Miss Mo | 7th | 75.00 | $113,200 | |
| Search Party | 8th | 67.50 | $409,025 | |
| Luv Your Neighbor | 9th | 65.00 | $151,500 | |
| Needs 3rd to clinch | ||||
| Forced Entry | 13th | 50.00 | $60,000 | SA Oaks (G2), SA, Sat. |
| Need 2nd to clinch | ||||
| Paradise | 16th | 37.50 | $110,000 | Gazelle (G3), AQU, Sat. |
| Bank Shot | 19th | 31.00 | $32,000 | SA Oaks (G2), SA, Sat. |
| Zany | 20th | 30.00 | $197,500 | Ashland (G1), KEE, Fri. |
| Meaning | 21st | 26.00 | $160,000 | SA Oaks (G2), SA, Sat. |
| Nycon | 23rd | 18.75 | $69,700 | Gazelle (G3), AQU, Sat. |
| French Blue | 24th | 15.00 | $12,000 | SA Oaks (G2), SA, Sat. |
| Percy's Bar | 25th | 14.00 | $503,620 | Ashland (G1), KEE, Fri. |
| Pashmina | 26th | 13.00 | $41,500 | Gazelle (G3), AQU, Sat. |
| Need win to clinch | ||||
| Two Bits | 27th | 10.00 | $110,250 | Gazelle (G3), AQU, Sat. |
| Omaha Bay | 28th | 10.00 | $9,800 | Ashland (G1), KEE, Fri. |
| French Friction | 29th | 0.00 | $81,000 | Ashland (G1), KEE, Fri. |
| Hypergamy | 30th | 0.00 | $44,500 | SA Oaks (G2), SA, Sat. |
| Brooklyn Blonde | 31st | 0.00 | $0 | SA Oaks (G2), SA, Sat. |
| Star Actress | 32nd | 0.00 | $0 | Ashland (G1), KEE, Fri. |
| Always a Runner | 33rd | 0.00 | $0 | Gazelle (G3), AQU, Sat. |
| Slow Kara | 34th | 0.00 | $0 | Gazelle (G3), AQU, Sat. |
| Need win & nom. | ||||
| Baffle + | 11.25 | $27,500 | Gazelle (G3), AQU, Sat. | |
| Victory Hall + | 0.00 | $27,000 | Gazelle (G3), AQU, Sat. | |
| Hollybygolly + | 0.00 | $24,800 | Ashland (G1), KEE, Fri. | |
| Hot Gossip + | 0.00 | $0 | Gazelle (G3), AQU, Sat. | |
| Red Cherry + | 0.00 | $0 | SA Oaks (G2), SA, Sat. | |
| Not yet | ||||
| Bottle of Rouge | 10th | 57.50 | $517,000 | |
| Lorelei Lei | 11th | 50.00 | $179,040 | |
| Labwah | 12th | 50.00 | $130,704 | |
| Taken by the Wind | 14th | 48.75 | $145,460 | |
| Need help | ||||
| Dazzling Dame | 15th | 40.75 | $263,525 | |
| On Time Girl | 17th | 35.00 | $273,745 | |
| Lovely Grey | 18th | 35.00 | $93,650 | |
| Resist | 22nd | 21.00 | $46,200 | |
| * non-restricted stakes | ||||
| + not nominated |