Upcoming preps 'mean the most' in Kentucky Derby Media Poll

“Generally,” says TVG correspondent Caton Bredar, prep races such as the Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass Stakes and Arkansas Derby “will mean the most” on the Kentucky Derby trail. That wait-and-see attitude reflected in Monday’s edition of the 2018 Kentucky Derby Media Poll assembled by HorseRacingNation.com.

While Noble Indy and Runaway Ghost both earned the points required to compete on the first Saturday in May, neither measure up as top contenders, according to a nationwide voting panel.

The Louisiana Derby winner Noble Indy came in at No. 9 with Runaway Ghost, a strong local winner of New Mexico’s Sunland Derby, 19th. Neither were ranked last week.

“While a good horse can come from anywhere — even New Mexico — it’s hard to see the winner of the Kentucky Derby coming from any race other than the ones above,” Bredar said.

So all eyes will be on the major preps beginning with Saturday’s Grade 1 Florida Derby. Action continues through April 14, when points-paying races leading up to the Kentucky Derby finish.

West Coast-based contenders Bolt d’Oro, McKinzie and Justify lead the latest rankings with Rebel Stakes (G2) winner Magnum Moon fourth and champion 2-year-old Good Magic fifth.

“For me,” said NBC Sports’ Randy Moss, “it’s basically impossible to try to separate Bolt d'Oro, McKinzie and Justify at this point.”

Added Churchill Downs’ Darren Rogers: “The belief here is that the top horses in the Louisiana Derby and Sunland Derby need a continued progression of improvement and must run much faster to compete with the likes of Justify, Bolt d'Oro, McKinzie and Magnum Moon.”

The poll’s Top 4 all received No. 1 votes, as did Solomini in seventh and Catholic Boy in eighth. Catholic Boy will match up against No. 6 Audible, No. 11 Promises Fulfilled and No. 18 Strike Power in Saturday’s Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park.

The Thoroughbred Daily News’ Ben Massam called it “a fascinating race to watch” with an entertaining subplot, given Todd Pletcher trains Grade 2 Holy Bull winner Audible and his former assistant, Jonathan Thomas, conditions Catholic Boy.

The remaining major preps all run at 1 1/8 miles, a distance Horse Racing Nation’s Mike Shutty says will “help us separate the true contenders from the pretenders.”

Next 10 receiving votes (with points): Free Drop Billy (35), Gold Town (28), Bravazo (28), Kanthaka (15), Reride (12), Blended Citizen (12), Vino Rosso (8), Snapper Sinclair (7), Ax Man (4), Mississippi (4).